PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 4 Oct 2025, 13:30 UTCFull timeSignal Iduna ParkFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBorussia DortmundRB Leipzig
Shots15 shots/match▲13 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match3 shots/match
Possession50%50%
Corners7 corners/match7 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match14 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: RB Leipzig's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Borussia Dortmund have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

RB Leipzig's recent record differs from the season

weak

RB Leipzig's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.33 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.33 goals/match1.45 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Borussia Dortmund have recorded the higher season possession share.

57.7%▲PossessionBorussia Dortmund · RB Leipzig48.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBorussia DortmundRB LeipzigBaseline
Possession57.7%48.8%49.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Borussia Dortmund favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · RB Leipzig in 3 · 4 too close

2 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 6/61.33 goals/match
0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 6/61.33 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 6/6▲16.8 shots/match
9.83 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 6/614.5 shots/match
5.33 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 6/64.33 shots/match
2.67 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 6/64 shots/match
57.7%Possessionseason · 6/648.8%
5.17 corners/matchCornersseason · 6/66.83 corners/match
5.5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 6/6▲4.83 corners/match
1.67 cards/matchCardsseason · 6/6▲1.5 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 6/610.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
67%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 6/650%
100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 6/683%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Borussia Dortmund86.1
RB Leipzig41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Borussia Dortmund69.4
RB Leipzig55.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Borussia Dortmund92.6
RB Leipzig61.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Borussia Dortmund2.8
RB Leipzig91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Borussia Dortmund36.1
RB Leipzig18
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Borussia Dortmund61.1
RB Leipzig97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Borussia Dortmund62.5
RB Leipzig66
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.6 goals/match
0.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/50.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13 shots/matchShots5/5▲17.8 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target5/55 shots/match
59.4%Possession5/551.2%
5.8 corners/matchCorners5/57.2 corners/match
1.2 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls5/510.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

6 / 6 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored6/61.33 goals/match
0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/61.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.2 shots/matchShots6/6▲16.8 shots/match
5.33 shots/match▲Shots on target6/64.33 shots/match
57.7%Possession6/648.8%
5.17 corners/matchCorners6/66.83 corners/match
1.67 cards/matchCards6/61.5 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls6/610.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

6 / 6 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored6/61.33 goals/match
0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/61.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.2 shots/matchShots6/6▲16.8 shots/match
5.33 shots/match▲Shots on target6/64.33 shots/match
57.7%Possession6/648.8%
5.17 corners/matchCorners6/66.83 corners/match
1.67 cards/matchCards6/61.5 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls6/610.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

3 / 4 matches
1.67 goals/match▲Goals scored3/40.75 goals/match
0.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/41.75 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.7 shots/matchShots3/4▲16 shots/match
4.33 shots/match▲Shots on target3/43.25 shots/match
57%Possession3/445%
6.67 corners/matchCorners3/47 corners/match
0.67 cards/matchCards3/41.5 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls3/411.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 4 Oct 2025, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBorussia DortmundRB Leipzig
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match