Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 4 Oct 2025, 13:30 UTCFull timeWWK ArenaFull-time recap

FC Augsburg

WLLLL

3–1Full-time recap

VfL Wolfsburg

WDDLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	FC Augsburg	VfL Wolfsburg
Shots	10 shots/match	14 shots/match▲
Shots on target	5 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Possession	47%	53%
Corners	10 corners/match	5 corners/match
Fouls	9 fouls/match	7 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match	1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: VfL Wolfsburg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

VfL Wolfsburg's recent record differs from the season

weak

VfL Wolfsburg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.33 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1 goals/match	1.33 goals/match	1.45 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

FC Augsburg favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · VfL Wolfsburg in 5 · 5 too close

1.83 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 6/61.33 goals/match

2.17 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 6/6▲1.67 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

11.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 6/6▲14.2 shots/match

14.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 6/6▲13.3 shots/match

4.17 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 6/63.67 shots/match

5.67 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 6/6▲4.67 shots/match

47.5%Possessionseason · 6/649.2%

5.17 corners/matchCornersseason · 6/64.83 corners/match

4.5 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 6/67.67 corners/match

3.5 cards/matchCardsseason · 6/6▲2 cards/match

14.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 6/610.8 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 6/60%

100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 6/667%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FC Augsburg30.6

VfL Wolfsburg47.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FC Augsburg39.8

VfL Wolfsburg39.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FC Augsburg28.7

VfL Wolfsburg50

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FC Augsburg30.6

VfL Wolfsburg69.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FC Augsburg93.1

VfL Wolfsburg40.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FC Augsburg61.1

VfL Wolfsburg27.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FC Augsburg50

VfL Wolfsburg38.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match

2.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.8 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

11.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲14 shots/match

4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.4 shots/match

49%Possession5/548.8%

5.2 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match

3.2 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match

13.6 fouls/matchFouls5/510.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

6 / 6 matches

1.83 goals/match▲Goals scored6/61.33 goals/match

2.17 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲1.67 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

11.7 shots/matchShots6/6▲14.2 shots/match

4.17 shots/match▲Shots on target6/63.67 shots/match

47.5%Possession6/649.2%

5.17 corners/matchCorners6/64.83 corners/match

3.5 cards/matchCards6/62 cards/match

14.3 fouls/matchFouls6/610.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

6 / 6 matches

1.83 goals/match▲Goals scored6/61.33 goals/match

2.17 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲1.67 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

11.7 shots/matchShots6/6▲14.2 shots/match

4.17 shots/match▲Shots on target6/63.67 shots/match

47.5%Possession6/649.2%

5.17 corners/matchCorners6/64.83 corners/match

3.5 cards/matchCards6/62 cards/match

14.3 fouls/matchFouls6/610.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

3 / 3 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored3/31.33 goals/match

2.67 goals/matchGoals allowed3/3▲1.67 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

12.7 shots/matchShots3/312.7 shots/match

4.33 shots/match▲Shots on target3/33 shots/match

50%Possession3/349.3%

7.67 corners/matchCorners3/34.33 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards3/31.33 cards/match

12 fouls/matchFouls3/39.33 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples6 / 6home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 4 Oct 2025, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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