PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sun, 28 Sept 2025, 17:30 UTCFull timeStadion An der Alten FörstereiFull-time recap
0–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricUnion BerlinHamburger SV
Shots11 shots/match16 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match6 shots/match▲
Possession34%66%
Corners5 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls18 fouls/match17 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline. A second useful context is: Hamburger SV have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

moderate

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

14 fouls/match▲FoulsUnion Berlin · Hamburger SV13.8 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricUnion BerlinHamburger SVBaseline
Fouls14 fouls/match13.8 fouls/match11.2 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Hamburger SV have recorded the higher season possession share.

31.6%▲PossessionUnion Berlin · Hamburger SV46.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 14.6 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricUnion BerlinHamburger SVBaseline
Possession31.6%46.2%49.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Union Berlin show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Union Berlin's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.4 shots/match▲ShotsUnion Berlin · Hamburger SV11.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricUnion BerlinHamburger SVBaseline
Shots12.4 shots/match11.8 shots/match12.7 shots/match
Shots against15.2 shots/match17.4 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Union Berlin favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Hamburger SV in 4 · 5 too close

1.6 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 5/50.4 goals/match
2.2 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 5/5▲1.6 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 5/511.8 shots/match
15.2 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 5/517.4 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 5/5▲4.2 shots/match
7.2 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 5/5▲6.4 shots/match
31.6%Possessionseason · 5/546.2%
5.2 corners/matchCornersseason · 5/53 corners/match
5 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 5/56.8 corners/match
1.8 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 5/53 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 5/513.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
20%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 5/5▲40%
60%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 5/520%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Union Berlin2.8
Hamburger SV19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Union Berlin38
Hamburger SV23.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Union Berlin18.5
Hamburger SV23.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Union Berlin97.2
Hamburger SV52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Union Berlin50
Hamburger SV80.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Union Berlin58.3
Hamburger SV2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Union Berlin51.4
Hamburger SV36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.4 goals/match
2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.4 shots/matchShots5/511.8 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.2 shots/match
31.6%Possession5/546.2%
5.2 corners/matchCorners5/53 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/53 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls5/513.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.4 goals/match
2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.4 shots/matchShots5/511.8 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.2 shots/match
31.6%Possession5/546.2%
5.2 corners/matchCorners5/53 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/53 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls5/513.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.4 goals/match
2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.4 shots/matchShots5/511.8 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.2 shots/match
31.6%Possession5/546.2%
5.2 corners/matchCorners5/53 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/53 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls5/513.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

3 / 3 matches
1.33 goals/match▲Goals scored3/30 goals/match
1.67 goals/matchGoals allowed3/31.67 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13 shots/match▲Shots3/310.7 shots/match
3.67 shots/match▲Shots on target3/33.33 shots/match
33.7%Possession3/344.7%
6.33 corners/matchCorners3/34 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards3/32 cards/match
17.3 fouls/matchFouls3/313.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.17 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.17 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples5 / 5home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 28 Sept 2025, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsUnion BerlinHamburger SV
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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