PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025RheinEnergieStadion

1. FC Köln 1–2 VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga

1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

VfB Stuttgart won 1–2.

Shots
1415
Shots on target
65
Expected goals
1.131.87
Possession
43%57%

Full time

What the match recorded

VfB Stuttgart beat 1. FC Köln 2–1. Recorded in this match (1. FC Köln – VfB Stuttgart): shots 14–15, shots on target 6–5, expected goals 1.13–1.87, possession 43%–57%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

VfB Stuttgart show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

VfB Stuttgart's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.2 shots/match ▲Shots1. FC Köln · VfB Stuttgart14.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric1. FC KölnVfB StuttgartBaseline
Shots14.2 shots/match14.6 shots/match12.6 shots/match
Shots against15.6 shots/match12 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

VfB Stuttgart have recorded the higher season possession share.

45.6%Possession1. FC Köln · VfB Stuttgart● 58.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.6 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric1. FC KölnVfB StuttgartBaseline
Possession45.6%58.2%49.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots15 shots1. FC Köln 14 shots, VfB Stuttgart 15 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots5 shots1. FC Köln 6 shots, VfB Stuttgart 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.13 xG1.87 xG1. FC Köln 1.13 xG, VfB Stuttgart 1.87 xG
  • Possession43%57%1. FC Köln 43%, VfB Stuttgart 57%
  • Corners8 corners8 corners1. FC Köln 8 corners, VfB Stuttgart 8 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls12 fouls1. FC Köln 12 fouls, VfB Stuttgart 12 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards2 cards1. FC Köln 2 cards, VfB Stuttgart 2 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Jeff Chabot · VfB Stuttgart · 41′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Mittelstädt · VfB Stuttgart · 77′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJan Thielmann · 1. FC Köln · 7′ · 0.02 xG · on targetTiago Tomás · VfB Stuttgart · 70′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJakub Kamiński · 1. FC Köln · 80′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTiago Tomás · VfB Stuttgart · 51′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSaid El Mala · 1. FC Köln · 73′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJakub Kamiński · 1. FC Köln · 78′ · 0.03 xG · on targetBadredine Bouanani · VfB Stuttgart · 87′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLuca Waldschmidt · 1. FC Köln · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedChris Führich · VfB Stuttgart · 18′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJosha Vagnoman · VfB Stuttgart · 37′ · 0.04 xG · on targetErmedin Demirović · VfB Stuttgart · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRagnar Ache · 1. FC Köln · 50′ · 0.04 xG · on targetBilal El Khannouss · VfB Stuttgart · 51′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJan Thielmann · 1. FC Köln · 53′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJakub Kamiński · 1. FC Köln · 72′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSaid El Mala · 1. FC Köln · 77′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJakub Kamiński · 1. FC Köln · 80′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRagnar Ache · 1. FC Köln · 7′ · 0.05 xG · on targetSaid El Mala · 1. FC Köln · 68′ · 0.05 xG · on targetBilal El Khannouss · VfB Stuttgart · 57′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedTiago Tomás · VfB Stuttgart · 17′ · 0.07 xG · on targetSebastian Sebulonsen · 1. FC Köln · 45′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedDenis Huseinbašić · 1. FC Köln · 72′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedTiago Tomás · VfB Stuttgart · 52′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedErmedin Demirović · VfB Stuttgart · 17′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedJosha Vagnoman · VfB Stuttgart · 81′ · 0.28 xG · goalJakub Kamiński · 1. FC Köln · 4′ · 0.50 xG · goalErmedin Demirović · VfB Stuttgart · 28′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1. FC Köln: 15 shots, 7 on target, 1.10 xG. VfB Stuttgart: 15 shots, 5 on target, 1.87 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Jakub Kamiński · 1. FC Köln · 4′Ermedin Demirović · VfB Stuttgart · 28′Josha Vagnoman · VfB Stuttgart · 81′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FC Köln 1.10 xG · VfB Stuttgart 1.87 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

01. FC Köln
2Draws
3VfB Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga1–1
1. FC Köln — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga0–2
VfB Stuttgart — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga3–0
1. FC Köln — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga0–0
VfB Stuttgart — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FC Köln favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · VfB Stuttgart in 6 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FC Köln5 matchesVfB Stuttgart5 matches
2 goals/match ▲Goals scored5/51.4 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲ 1.2 goals/match
1.59 xG/match ▲Expected goals5/51.41 xG/match
14.2 shots/matchShots5/514.6 shots/match
4.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲ 5.2 shots/match
45.6%Possession5/5● 58.2%
4.6 corners/matchCorners5/5● 6.8 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls5/511.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples5 / 5home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 28 Sept 2025, 19:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FC KölnVfB Stuttgart
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-head1. FC Köln — VfB Stuttgart
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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