PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sun, 28 Sept 2025, 15:30 UTCFull timeRheinEnergieStadionFull-time recap
1–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric1. FC KölnVfB Stuttgart
Shots15 shots/match15 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Possession43%57%
Corners8 corners/match8 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: VfB Stuttgart's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: VfB Stuttgart have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

VfB Stuttgart show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

VfB Stuttgart's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.4 shots/match▲Shots1. FC Köln · VfB Stuttgart14.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric1. FC KölnVfB StuttgartBaseline
Shots14.4 shots/match14.6 shots/match12.7 shots/match
Shots against15.6 shots/match12.2 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

VfB Stuttgart have recorded the higher season possession share.

45.6%▲Possession1. FC Köln · VfB Stuttgart58.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.6 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric1. FC KölnVfB StuttgartBaseline
Possession45.6%58.2%49.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

1. FC Köln favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · VfB Stuttgart in 5 · 8 too close

2 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 5/51.4 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 5/5▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
14.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 5/514.6 shots/match
15.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 5/5▲12.2 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 5/55.2 shots/match
4.6 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 5/54.6 shots/match
45.6%Possessionseason · 5/558.2%
4.6 corners/matchCornersseason · 5/56.8 corners/match
7.4 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 5/5▲6.8 corners/match
2 cards/matchCardsseason · 5/5▲1.8 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 5/511.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
20%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 5/5▲40%
100%Scoring frequencyseason · 5/5100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

1. FC Köln13.9
VfB Stuttgart80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

1. FC Köln65.7
VfB Stuttgart55.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

1. FC Köln42.6
VfB Stuttgart73.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

1. FC Köln80.6
VfB Stuttgart36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

1. FC Köln32
VfB Stuttgart33.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

1. FC Köln30.6
VfB Stuttgart88.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

1. FC Köln44.5
VfB Stuttgart68.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.4 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.4 shots/matchShots5/514.6 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target5/55.2 shots/match
45.6%Possession5/558.2%
4.6 corners/matchCorners5/56.8 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls5/511.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.4 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.4 shots/matchShots5/514.6 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target5/55.2 shots/match
45.6%Possession5/558.2%
4.6 corners/matchCorners5/56.8 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls5/511.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.4 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.4 shots/matchShots5/514.6 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target5/55.2 shots/match
45.6%Possession5/558.2%
4.6 corners/matchCorners5/56.8 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls5/511.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

2 / 3 matches
—Goals scored2/31.33 goals/match
—Goals allowed2/32 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
—Shots2/314.3 shots/match
—Shots on target2/34.33 shots/match
—Possession2/362%
—Corners2/36.67 corners/match
—Cards2/32.33 cards/match
—Fouls2/312.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.96 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.88 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples5 / 5home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 28 Sept 2025, 19:30 UTC · analysis-v4
Teams1. FC KölnVfB Stuttgart
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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