PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Volksparkstadion

Hamburger SV 4–0 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga

4–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Hamburger SV won 4–0.

Shots
1511
Shots on target
94
Expected goals
1.910.67
Possession
35%65%

Full time

What the match recorded

Hamburger SV beat FSV Mainz 05 4–0. Recorded in this match (Hamburger SV – FSV Mainz 05): shots 15–11, shots on target 9–4, expected goals 1.91–0.67, possession 35%–65%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FSV Mainz 05's recent record differs from the season

weak

FSV Mainz 05's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.83 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match0.83 goals/match1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FSV Mainz 05 show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

FSV Mainz 05's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.3 shots/match ▲ShotsHamburger SV · FSV Mainz 0513.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricHamburger SVFSV Mainz 05Baseline
Shots12.3 shots/match13.3 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against16.3 shots/match14.2 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

FSV Mainz 05 have recorded the higher season possession share.

44.3%PossessionHamburger SV · FSV Mainz 05● 53.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricHamburger SVFSV Mainz 05Baseline
Possession44.3%53.3%49.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots11 shotsHamburger SV 15 shots, 1. FSV Mainz 05 11 shots
  • Shots on target9 shots4 shotsHamburger SV 9 shots, 1. FSV Mainz 05 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.91 xG0.67 xGHamburger SV 1.91 xG, 1. FSV Mainz 05 0.67 xG
  • Possession35%65%Hamburger SV 35%, 1. FSV Mainz 05 65%
  • Corners1 corner4 cornersHamburger SV 1 corner, 1. FSV Mainz 05 4 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls13 foulsHamburger SV 14 fouls, 1. FSV Mainz 05 13 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards3 cardsHamburger SV 2 cards, 1. FSV Mainz 05 3 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Miro Muheim · Hamburger SV · 36′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJean-Luc Dompé · Hamburger SV · 52′ · 0.02 xG · goalArnaud Nordin · FSV Mainz 05 · 77′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNadiem Amiri · FSV Mainz 05 · 19′ · 0.03 xG · on targetBenedict Hollerbach · FSV Mainz 05 · 37′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBenedict Hollerbach · FSV Mainz 05 · 56′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLuka Vušković · Hamburger SV · 58′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRobert Glatzel · Hamburger SV · 72′ · 0.03 xG · on targetGiorgi Gocholeishvili · Hamburger SV · 6′ · 0.04 xG · on targetNadiem Amiri · FSV Mainz 05 · 11′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKaishu Sano · FSV Mainz 05 · 30′ · 0.05 xG · on targetRayan Philippe · Hamburger SV · 49′ · 0.05 xG · on targetRayan Philippe · Hamburger SV · 42′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRayan Philippe · Hamburger SV · 10′ · 0.07 xG · goalNelson Weiper · FSV Mainz 05 · 88′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedGiorgi Gocholeishvili · Hamburger SV · 53′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedArnaud Nordin · FSV Mainz 05 · 82′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJae-sung Lee · FSV Mainz 05 · 60′ · 0.09 xG · on targetFabio Baldé · Hamburger SV · 85′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedStefan Bell · FSV Mainz 05 · 90′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedJae-sung Lee · FSV Mainz 05 · 36′ · 0.11 xG · on targetRayan Philippe · Hamburger SV · 16′ · 0.13 xG · on targetRansford Yeboah Königsdörffer · Hamburger SV · 17′ · 0.14 xG · on targetAlbert Sambi Lokonga · Hamburger SV · 6′ · 0.25 xG · goalJean-Luc Dompé · Hamburger SV · 51′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blockedRayan Philippe · Hamburger SV · 61′ · 0.69 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Hamburger SV: 15 shots, 9 on target, 1.96 xG. FSV Mainz 05: 11 shots, 4 on target, 0.66 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Albert Sambi Lokonga · Hamburger SV · 6′Rayan Philippe · Hamburger SV · 10′Jean-Luc Dompé · Hamburger SV · 52′Rayan Philippe · Hamburger SV · 61′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Hamburger SV 1.96 xG · FSV Mainz 05 0.66 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Hamburger SV favored in 4 of 11 directional metrics · 1. FSV Mainz 05 in 6 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Hamburger SV6 matches1. FSV Mainz 056 matches
1 goal/match ▲Goals scored6/60.83 goals/match
1.33 goals/match ▲Goals allowed6/61.67 goals/match
1.11 xG/matchExpected goals6/6▲ 1.34 xG/match
12.3 shots/matchShots6/6▲ 13.3 shots/match
5 shots/match ▲Shots on target6/62.83 shots/match
44.3%Possession6/6● 53.3%
2.67 corners/matchCorners6/6● 6.33 corners/match
2.83 cards/matchCards6/62.67 cards/match
13.8 fouls/matchFouls6/611.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 5 Oct 2025, 19:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsHamburger SV1. FSV Mainz 05
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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