PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sun, 5 Oct 2025, 15:30 UTCFull timeVolksparkstadionFull-time recap
4–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricHamburger SVFSV Mainz 05
Shots15 shots/match▲11 shots/match
Shots on target9 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession35%65%
Corners1 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls14 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: FSV Mainz 05's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: FSV Mainz 05's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

FSV Mainz 05's recent record differs from the season

weak

FSV Mainz 05's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.83 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match0.83 goals/match1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FSV Mainz 05 show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

FSV Mainz 05's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.3 shots/match▲ShotsHamburger SV · FSV Mainz 0513.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricHamburger SVFSV Mainz 05Baseline
Shots12.3 shots/match13.3 shots/match12.9 shots/match
Shots against16.3 shots/match14.2 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

FSV Mainz 05 have recorded the higher season possession share.

44.3%▲PossessionHamburger SV · FSV Mainz 0553.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricHamburger SVFSV Mainz 05Baseline
Possession44.3%53.3%49.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Hamburger SV favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · FSV Mainz 05 in 5 · 5 too close

1 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 6/60.83 goals/match
1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 6/61.67 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 6/6▲13.3 shots/match
16.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 6/6▲14.2 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 6/62.83 shots/match
6 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 6/6▲4.33 shots/match
44.3%Possessionseason · 6/653.3%
2.67 corners/matchCornersseason · 6/66.33 corners/match
6.33 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 6/6▲3.83 corners/match
2.83 cards/matchCardsseason · 6/6▲2.67 cards/match
13.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 6/611.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
50%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 6/60%
33%Scoring frequencyseason · 6/633%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Hamburger SV13.9
FSV Mainz 0569.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Hamburger SV38.9
FSV Mainz 0524.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Hamburger SV30.5
FSV Mainz 0553.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Hamburger SV63.9
FSV Mainz 0541.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Hamburger SV84.7
FSV Mainz 0565.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Hamburger SV2.8
FSV Mainz 0588.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Hamburger SV45.9
FSV Mainz 0551.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.4 shots/match▲Shots5/512.2 shots/match
5.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53 shots/match
45.4%Possession5/553.8%
2 corners/matchCorners5/56 corners/match
3.2 cards/matchCards5/53 cards/match
14.6 fouls/matchFouls5/512.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

6 / 6 matches
1 goals/match▲Goals scored6/60.83 goals/match
1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/61.67 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.3 shots/matchShots6/6▲13.3 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target6/62.83 shots/match
44.3%Possession6/653.3%
2.67 corners/matchCorners6/66.33 corners/match
2.83 cards/matchCards6/62.67 cards/match
13.8 fouls/matchFouls6/611.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

6 / 6 matches
1 goals/match▲Goals scored6/60.83 goals/match
1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/61.67 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.3 shots/matchShots6/6▲13.3 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target6/62.83 shots/match
44.3%Possession6/653.3%
2.67 corners/matchCorners6/66.33 corners/match
2.83 cards/matchCards6/62.67 cards/match
13.8 fouls/matchFouls6/611.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

3 / 3 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored3/31.67 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/32 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14 shots/matchShots3/313.3 shots/match
6.67 shots/match▲Shots on target3/33.67 shots/match
44%Possession3/354.7%
1.33 corners/matchCorners3/36.67 corners/match
3.67 cards/matchCards3/33.67 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls3/312.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.92 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.08 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 5 Oct 2025, 19:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsHamburger SVFSV Mainz 05
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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