PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sun, 5 Oct 2025, 13:30 UTCFull timeMHPArenaFull-time recap
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricVfB Stuttgart1. FC Heidenheim
Shots18 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Possession64%36%
Corners1 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: 1. FC Heidenheim's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. A second useful context is: VfB Stuttgart have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

1. FC Heidenheim show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

1. FC Heidenheim's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

15.2 shots/match▲ShotsVfB Stuttgart · 1. FC Heidenheim9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricVfB Stuttgart1. FC HeidenheimBaseline
Shots15.2 shots/match9 shots/match12.9 shots/match
Shots against11 shots/match16.5 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

VfB Stuttgart have recorded the higher season possession share.

59.2%▲PossessionVfB Stuttgart · 1. FC Heidenheim40.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 18.7 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricVfB Stuttgart1. FC HeidenheimBaseline
Possession59.2%40.5%49.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

VfB Stuttgart favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · 1. FC Heidenheim in 1 · 4 too close

1.33 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 6/60.67 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 6/61.83 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
15.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 6/69 shots/match
11 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 6/616.5 shots/match
5.33 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 6/63.33 shots/match
4 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 6/65.83 shots/match
59.2%Possessionseason · 6/640.5%
5.83 corners/matchCornersseason · 6/64.33 corners/match
5.83 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 6/6▲2.83 corners/match
1.67 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 6/62.17 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 6/611.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
50%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 6/60%
100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 6/650%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

VfB Stuttgart91.7
1. FC Heidenheim8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

VfB Stuttgart68.5
1. FC Heidenheim4.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

VfB Stuttgart83.3
1. FC Heidenheim19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

VfB Stuttgart52.8
1. FC Heidenheim13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

VfB Stuttgart29.2
1. FC Heidenheim58.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

VfB Stuttgart77.8
1. FC Heidenheim19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

VfB Stuttgart73.6
1. FC Heidenheim21.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14 shots/match▲Shots5/59.4 shots/match
5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.6 shots/match
56%Possession5/538.8%
4.8 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match
1.2 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls5/511.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

6 / 6 matches
1.33 goals/match▲Goals scored6/60.67 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/61.83 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.2 shots/match▲Shots6/69 shots/match
5.33 shots/match▲Shots on target6/63.33 shots/match
59.2%Possession6/640.5%
5.83 corners/matchCorners6/64.33 corners/match
1.67 cards/matchCards6/62.17 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls6/611.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

6 / 6 matches
1.33 goals/match▲Goals scored6/60.67 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/61.83 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.2 shots/match▲Shots6/69 shots/match
5.33 shots/match▲Shots on target6/63.33 shots/match
59.2%Possession6/640.5%
5.83 corners/matchCorners6/64.33 corners/match
1.67 cards/matchCards6/62.17 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls6/611.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

3 / 3 matches
1.33 goals/match▲Goals scored3/30.33 goals/match
0 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/31.67 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16 shots/match▲Shots3/310 shots/match
6.33 shots/match▲Shots on target3/34 shots/match
56.3%Possession3/340.3%
5 corners/matchCorners3/35.33 corners/match
1 cards/matchCards3/32.33 cards/match
9.67 fouls/matchFouls3/311.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.92 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 5 Oct 2025, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsVfB Stuttgart1. FC Heidenheim
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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