PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Millerntor-Stadion

FC St. Pauli 1–2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga

1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Bayer 04 Leverkusen won 1–2.

Shots
135
Shots on target
64
Expected goals
0.820.69
Possession
49%51%

Full time

What the match recorded

Bayer Leverkusen beat FC St. Pauli 2–1. Recorded in this match (FC St. Pauli – Bayer Leverkusen): shots 13–5, shots on target 6–4, expected goals 0.82–0.69, possession 49%–51%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Bayer Leverkusen show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Bayer Leverkusen's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.6 shots/match ▲ShotsFC St. Pauli · Bayer Leverkusen10.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFC St. PauliBayer LeverkusenBaseline
Shots12.6 shots/match10.6 shots/match12.9 shots/match
Shots against9 shots/match12.2 shots/match13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots5 shotsFC St. Pauli 13 shots, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 5 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots4 shotsFC St. Pauli 6 shots, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4 shots
  • Expected goals0.82 xG0.69 xGFC St. Pauli 0.82 xG, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0.69 xG
  • Possession49%51%FC St. Pauli 49%, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 51%
  • Corners13 corners1 cornerFC St. Pauli 13 corners, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1 corner
  • Fouls13 fouls11 foulsFC St. Pauli 13 fouls, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 11 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards5 cardsFC St. Pauli 3 cards, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 5 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Alejandro Grimaldo · Bayer Leverkusen · 84′ · 0.01 xG · on targetManolis Saliakas · FC St. Pauli · 54′ · 0.02 xG · on targetDanel Sinani · FC St. Pauli · 55′ · 0.02 xG · on targetLouis Oppie · FC St. Pauli · 53′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDanel Sinani · FC St. Pauli · 73′ · 0.04 xG · on targetEric Smith · FC St. Pauli · 90′ · 0.04 xG · on targetHauke Wahl · FC St. Pauli · 18′ · 0.05 xG · on targetAbdoulie Ceesay · FC St. Pauli · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAndreas Hountondji · FC St. Pauli · 11′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedDanel Sinani · FC St. Pauli · 20′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMathias Pereira Lage · FC St. Pauli · 13′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJonas Hofmann · Bayer Leverkusen · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedHauke Wahl · FC St. Pauli · 32′ · 0.10 xG · goalEric Smith · FC St. Pauli · 2′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedJoel Chima Fujita · FC St. Pauli · 68′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedJarell Quansah · Bayer Leverkusen · 7′ · 0.21 xG · on targetEdmond Tapsoba · Bayer Leverkusen · 25′ · 0.21 xG · goalErnest Poku · Bayer Leverkusen · 58′ · 0.33 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

FC St. Pauli: 13 shots, 6 on target, 0.82 xG. Bayer Leverkusen: 5 shots, 4 on target, 0.84 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Hauke Wahl · FC St. Pauli · 32′Edmond Tapsoba · Bayer Leverkusen · 25′Ernest Poku · Bayer Leverkusen · 58′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC St. Pauli 0.82 xG · Bayer Leverkusen 0.84 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0FC St. Pauli
1Draws
1Bayer 04 Leverkusen
FC St. Pauli — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga1–1
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC St. Pauli favored in 4 of 11 directional metrics · Bayer 04 Leverkusen in 3 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC St. Pauli5 matchesBayer 04 Leverkusen5 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲ 2 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
1.28 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲ 1.44 xG/match
12.6 shots/match ▲Shots5/510.6 shots/match
5.6 shots/matchShots on target5/55.4 shots/match
51%Possession5/5● 53.4%
6 corners/match ●Corners5/54.2 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/54 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls5/510.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples5 / 5home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 27 Sept 2025, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC St. PauliBayer 04 Leverkusen
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-headFC St. Pauli — Bayer 04 Leverkusen
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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