Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 27 Sept 2025, 13:30 UTCFull timeMillerntor-StadionFull-time recap

FC St. Pauli

DWWL

1–2Full-time recap

Bayer Leverkusen

LDWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	FC St. Pauli	Bayer Leverkusen
Shots	13 shots/match▲	5 shots/match
Shots on target	6 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Possession	49%	51%
Corners	13 corners/match	1 corners/match
Fouls	13 fouls/match	11 fouls/match
Yellow cards	3 cards/match▲	5 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bayer Leverkusen's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Bayer Leverkusen show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Bayer Leverkusen's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.6 shots/match▲ShotsFC St. Pauli · Bayer Leverkusen10.6 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	FC St. Pauli	Bayer Leverkusen	Baseline
Shots	12.6 shots/match	10.6 shots/match	12.9 shots/match
Shots against	9 shots/match	12.2 shots/match	13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

FC St. Pauli favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Bayer Leverkusen in 2 · 7 too close

1.6 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 5/5▲2 goals/match

1.6 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 5/51.6 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

12.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 5/510.6 shots/match

9 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 5/512.2 shots/match

5.6 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 5/55.4 shots/match

5.2 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 5/55 shots/match

51%Possessionseason · 5/553.4%

6 corners/matchCornersseason · 5/54.2 corners/match

2.8 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 5/56.4 corners/match

2.2 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 5/54 cards/match

14 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 5/510.4 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

20%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 5/50%

80%Scoring frequencyseason · 5/5▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FC St. Pauli61.1

Bayer Leverkusen75

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FC St. Pauli55.6

Bayer Leverkusen46.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FC St. Pauli68.5

Bayer Leverkusen63

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FC St. Pauli25

Bayer Leverkusen8.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FC St. Pauli68

Bayer Leverkusen63.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FC St. Pauli69.4

Bayer Leverkusen27.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FC St. Pauli68.8

Bayer Leverkusen32.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match

1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.6 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

12.6 shots/match▲Shots5/510.6 shots/match

5.6 shots/matchShots on target5/55.4 shots/match

51%Possession5/553.4%

6 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match

2.2 cards/matchCards5/54 cards/match

14 fouls/matchFouls5/510.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

5 / 5 matches

1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match

1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.6 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

12.6 shots/match▲Shots5/510.6 shots/match

5.6 shots/matchShots on target5/55.4 shots/match

51%Possession5/553.4%

6 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match

2.2 cards/matchCards5/54 cards/match

14 fouls/matchFouls5/510.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

5 / 5 matches

1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match

1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.6 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

12.6 shots/match▲Shots5/510.6 shots/match

5.6 shots/matchShots on target5/55.4 shots/match

51%Possession5/553.4%

6 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match

2.2 cards/matchCards5/54 cards/match

14 fouls/matchFouls5/510.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

3 / 2 matches

2 goals/matchGoals scored3/2—

2 goals/matchGoals allowed3/2—

—Expected goals0/0—

12.3 shots/matchShots3/2—

6.67 shots/matchShots on target3/2—

52.3%Possession3/2—

7 corners/matchCorners3/2—

2 cards/matchCards3/2—

12 fouls/matchFouls3/2—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.79 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.92 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples5 / 5home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 27 Sept 2025, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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