Premier League · 2025Sun, 12 Apr 2026, 15:30 UTCFull timeStamford BridgeFull-time recap

Chelsea

DLWLL

0–3Full-time recap

Manchester City

WWWDD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Chelsea	Manchester City
Shots	12 shots/match	18 shots/match▲
Shots on target	3 shots/match	8 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.14 xG/match	1.89 xG/match▲
Possession	35%	65%
Corners	4 corners/match	12 corners/match
Fouls	9 fouls/match	14 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match	1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Chelsea's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Chelsea's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Chelsea's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.66 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1 goals/match	1.66 goals/match	1.34 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.16 corners/match▲CornersChelsea · Manchester City5.87 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Chelsea	Manchester City	Baseline
Corners	6.16 corners/match	5.87 corners/match	4.94 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Chelsea

1Draws

0Manchester City

4 Jan 2026Manchester City — Chelsea · Premier League1–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Chelsea favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Manchester City in 9 · 5 too close

1.66 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 32/31▲2.03 goals/match

1.28 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 32/31▲0.9 goals/match

1.23 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 3/2—

1.45 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 3/2—

13.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 32/31▲14.9 shots/match

11 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 32/31▲9.84 shots/match

4.63 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 32/31▲5.29 shots/match

4.19 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 32/31▲3.42 shots/match

58.3%Possessionseason · 32/3160.1%

6.16 corners/matchCornersseason · 32/315.87 corners/match

4.38 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 32/31▲3.71 corners/match

2.76 cards/matchCardsseason · 29/29▲1.86 cards/match

10.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 32/3110.1 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

28%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 32/31▲42%

84%Scoring frequencyseason · 32/3187%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Chelsea87.5

Manchester City97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Chelsea75.8

Manchester City92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Chelsea64.2

Manchester City92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Chelsea27.5

Manchester City57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Chelsea83.8

Manchester City35

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 95%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Chelsea92.5

Manchester City77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Chelsea77.5

Manchester City71.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match

1.23 xG/matchExpected goals3/2—

14 shots/matchShots5/5▲18.4 shots/match

4.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6.4 shots/match

56.4%Possession5/565.6%

7.8 corners/matchCorners5/58.2 corners/match

—Cards2/31.67 cards/match

9.6 fouls/matchFouls5/59.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.7 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.8 goals/match

1.7 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.9 goals/match

1.23 xG/matchExpected goals3/2—

14 shots/matchShots10/10▲15.5 shots/match

4.5 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.2 shots/match

60.9%Possession10/1062.9%

7 corners/matchCorners10/106.3 corners/match

3.29 cards/matchCards7/82.38 cards/match

10.1 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

32 / 31 matches

1.66 goals/matchGoals scored32/31▲2.03 goals/match

1.28 goals/matchGoals allowed32/31▲0.9 goals/match

1.23 xG/matchExpected goals3/2—

13.7 shots/matchShots32/31▲14.9 shots/match

4.63 shots/matchShots on target32/31▲5.29 shots/match

58.3%Possession32/3160.1%

6.16 corners/matchCorners32/315.87 corners/match

2.76 cards/matchCards29/291.86 cards/match

10.9 fouls/matchFouls32/3110.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

16 / 16 matches

1.44 goals/matchGoals scored16/16▲1.69 goals/match

1.25 goals/matchGoals allowed16/16▲1.06 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

14.8 shots/match▲Shots16/1613.8 shots/match

4.25 shots/matchShots on target16/164.38 shots/match

59.3%Possession16/1660.4%

6.88 corners/matchCorners16/165.19 corners/match

2.43 cards/matchCards14/142.29 cards/match

10.6 fouls/matchFouls16/169.75 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

21.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/128.8 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples32 / 31home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 12 Apr 2026, 19:30 UTC · analysis-v4