Premier League · 2025Sat, 18 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTCFull timeStamford BridgeFull-time recap

Chelsea

LWLLL

0–1Full-time recap

Manchester United

WLWDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Chelsea	Manchester United
Shots	21 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Shots on target	3 shots/match▲	1 shots/match
Expected goals	1.55 xG/match▲	0.29 xG/match
Possession	59%	41%
Corners	7 corners/match	1 corners/match
Fouls	12 fouls/match	13 fouls/match
Yellow cards	1 cards/match▲	2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Chelsea's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Chelsea's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Chelsea's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.61 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.8 goals/match	1.61 goals/match	1.32 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Chelsea

0Draws

1Manchester United

20 Sept 2025Manchester United — Chelsea · Premier League2–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Chelsea favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Manchester United in 6 · 4 too close

1.61 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 33/33▲1.76 goals/match

1.27 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 33/331.36 goals/match

1.31 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 4/41.09 xG/match

1.16 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 4/41.61 xG/match

13.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 33/33▲15.6 shots/match

10.8 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 33/3311.4 shots/match

4.58 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 33/33▲5.7 shots/match

4.09 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 33/33▲3.7 shots/match

58.4%Possessionseason · 33/3352.8%

6.18 corners/matchCornersseason · 33/334.67 corners/match

4.27 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 33/334.88 corners/match

2.76 cards/matchCardsseason · 29/31▲1.65 cards/match

10.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 33/339.73 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

27%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 33/3318%

82%Scoring frequencyseason · 33/33▲91%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Chelsea87.5

Manchester United62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Chelsea75.8

Manchester United92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Chelsea69.2

Manchester United69.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Chelsea32.5

Manchester United97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Chelsea83.8

Manchester United15

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 94%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Chelsea92.5

Manchester United35

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Chelsea78.8

Manchester United58.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match

1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.4 goals/match

1.31 xG/match▲Expected goals4/41.09 xG/match

16.4 shots/match▲Shots5/513.2 shots/match

4.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.2 shots/match

56.4%Possession5/549.2%

7.2 corners/matchCorners5/56 corners/match

—Cards1/33.33 cards/match

9.2 fouls/matchFouls5/511.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.4 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.7 goals/match

1.7 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.1 goals/match

1.31 xG/match▲Expected goals4/41.09 xG/match

15.1 shots/match▲Shots10/1014.2 shots/match

4.2 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.9 shots/match

61.1%Possession10/1053.1%

7.2 corners/matchCorners10/105.1 corners/match

3.5 cards/matchCards6/82.38 cards/match

10.3 fouls/matchFouls10/1010 fouls/match

Window

Season

33 / 33 matches

1.61 goals/matchGoals scored33/33▲1.76 goals/match

1.27 goals/match▲Goals allowed33/331.36 goals/match

1.31 xG/match▲Expected goals4/41.09 xG/match

13.9 shots/matchShots33/33▲15.6 shots/match

4.58 shots/matchShots on target33/33▲5.7 shots/match

58.4%Possession33/3352.8%

6.18 corners/matchCorners33/334.67 corners/match

2.76 cards/matchCards29/311.65 cards/match

10.9 fouls/matchFouls33/339.73 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

17 / 17 matches

1.35 goals/matchGoals scored17/17▲1.59 goals/match

1.24 goals/match▲Goals allowed17/171.53 goals/match

1.37 xG/matchExpected goals3/2—

15.2 shots/match▲Shots17/1713.8 shots/match

4.18 shots/matchShots on target17/17▲4.59 shots/match

59.3%Possession17/1752.8%

6.88 corners/matchCorners17/174.18 corners/match

2.43 cards/matchCards14/161.5 cards/match

10.7 fouls/matchFouls17/179 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.15 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples33 / 33home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 18 Apr 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

What the record shows

Chelsea's recent record differs from the season

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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