Premier League · 2025Tue, 21 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTCFull timeAmex StadiumFull-time recap

Brighton

LWWWD

3–0Full-time recap

Chelsea

WLLLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Brighton	Chelsea
Shots	15 shots/match▲	6 shots/match
Shots on target	9 shots/match▲	0 shots/match
Expected goals	2.17 xG/match▲	0.38 xG/match
Possession	54%	46%
Corners	6 corners/match	5 corners/match
Fouls	15 fouls/match	5 fouls/match
Yellow cards	1 cards/match	1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Chelsea's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Brighton, Chelsea. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Chelsea's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Chelsea's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.56 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0 goals/match	1.56 goals/match	1.35 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Brighton, Chelsea.

3.1 days▲Rest daysBrighton · Chelsea3 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Brighton	Chelsea	Baseline
Rest days	3.1 days	3 days	—
Matches last 14 days	2 matches	2 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Brighton

0Draws

0Chelsea

27 Sept 2025Chelsea — Brighton · Premier League1–3

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Brighton favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Chelsea in 4 · 5 too close

1.41 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 34/34▲1.56 goals/match

1.15 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 34/341.32 goals/match

1.77 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 5/51.12 xG/match

0.87 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 5/51.36 xG/match

12.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 34/34▲13.7 shots/match

12 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 34/34▲10.9 shots/match

4.59 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 34/344.44 shots/match

3.91 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 34/344.24 shots/match

52.9%Possessionseason · 34/3458%

4.71 corners/matchCornersseason · 34/346.15 corners/match

5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 34/34▲4.32 corners/match

2.48 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 29/292.76 cards/match

12.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 34/3410.8 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

26%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 34/3426%

79%Scoring frequencyseason · 34/3479%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Brighton72.5

Chelsea87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Brighton64.2

Chelsea69.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Brighton69.2

Chelsea62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Brighton42.5

Chelsea27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Brighton90

Chelsea81.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 93%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Brighton37.5

Chelsea92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Brighton66.2

Chelsea72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50 goals/match

0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.2 goals/match

1.77 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.12 xG/match

13.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲14.6 shots/match

5.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.6 shots/match

52.4%Possession5/554.2%

4 corners/matchCorners5/56.6 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.4 fouls/matchFouls5/58.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.1 goals/match

0.7 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.8 goals/match

1.77 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.12 xG/match

11.8 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.3 shots/match

5.1 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.6 shots/match

53.8%Possession10/1058.6%

4 corners/matchCorners10/106.8 corners/match

2.6 cards/matchCards5/53.6 cards/match

12.9 fouls/matchFouls10/109.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

34 / 34 matches

1.41 goals/matchGoals scored34/34▲1.56 goals/match

1.15 goals/match▲Goals allowed34/341.32 goals/match

1.77 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.12 xG/match

12.8 shots/matchShots34/34▲13.7 shots/match

4.59 shots/matchShots on target34/344.44 shots/match

52.9%Possession34/3458%

4.71 corners/matchCorners34/346.15 corners/match

2.48 cards/matchCards29/292.76 cards/match

12.1 fouls/matchFouls34/3410.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

17 / 17 matches

1.59 goals/matchGoals scored17/17▲1.76 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed17/171.41 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

13.8 shots/match▲Shots17/1712.2 shots/match

5.06 shots/match▲Shots on target17/174.71 shots/match

54.3%Possession17/1756.7%

5.12 corners/matchCorners17/175.41 corners/match

1.8 cards/matchCards15/153.07 cards/match

11.5 fouls/matchFouls17/1710.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples34 / 34home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Tue, 21 Apr 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

What the record shows

Chelsea's recent record differs from the season

Recent scheduling adds useful context

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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