PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Mon, 23 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timeHill Dickinson StadiumFull-time recap

Everton

WDDWL
0–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricEvertonManchester United
Shots12 shots/match▲11 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession48%52%
Corners10 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match7 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Manchester United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Manchester United's last-five shots average is below their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Manchester United show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Manchester United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11 shots/match▲ShotsEverton · Manchester United15.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricEvertonManchester UnitedBaseline
Shots11 shots/match15.9 shots/match12.5 shots/match
Shots against13.4 shots/match11 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Manchester United's recent record differs from the season

weak

Manchester United's last-five shots average is below their season average.

13.2 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season15.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots13.2 shots/match15.9 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Manchester United have recorded the higher season possession share.

44%▲PossessionEverton · Manchester United53.1%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.1 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricEvertonManchester UnitedBaseline
Possession44%53.1%50%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Everton
0Draws
0Manchester United
Manchester United — Everton · Premier League0–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Everton favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Manchester United in 7 · 5 too close

1.07 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 27/27▲1.78 goals/match
1.15 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 27/271.37 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11 shots/matchShotsseason · 27/27▲15.9 shots/match
13.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 27/27▲11 shots/match
3.3 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 27/27▲5.59 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 27/27▲3.63 shots/match
44%Possessionseason · 27/2753.1%
4.48 corners/matchCornersseason · 27/274.33 corners/match
4.96 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 27/275.07 corners/match
2.07 cards/matchCardsseason · 27/27▲1.44 cards/match
10.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 27/279.26 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
33%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 27/2719%
70%Scoring frequencyseason · 27/27▲89%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Everton17.5
Manchester United72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Everton24.2
Manchester United93.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Everton56.7
Manchester United72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Everton62.5
Manchester United97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Everton60
Manchester United5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Everton32.5
Manchester United25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Everton33.8
Manchester United55.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲13.2 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5 shots/match
50%Possession5/553.6%
5.8 corners/matchCorners5/53.2 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/51.4 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls5/57.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.7 goals/match
1.1 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.9 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.3 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.7 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.4 shots/match
45.3%Possession10/1050.9%
4.6 corners/matchCorners10/103.7 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards10/101.2 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls10/108.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

27 / 27 matches
1.07 goals/matchGoals scored27/27▲1.78 goals/match
1.15 goals/match▲Goals allowed27/271.37 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11 shots/matchShots27/27▲15.9 shots/match
3.3 shots/matchShots on target27/27▲5.59 shots/match
44%Possession27/2753.1%
4.48 corners/matchCorners27/274.33 corners/match
2.07 cards/matchCards27/271.44 cards/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls27/279.26 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

14 / 14 matches
1.14 goals/matchGoals scored14/14▲1.64 goals/match
1.36 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/141.57 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.4 shots/matchShots14/14▲14.4 shots/match
3.86 shots/matchShots on target14/14▲4.79 shots/match
47.9%Possession14/1454%
5.43 corners/matchCorners14/144.14 corners/match
2.21 cards/matchCards14/141.29 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls14/148.21 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

13 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/113 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples27 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 24 Feb 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsEvertonManchester United
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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