PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sun, 22 Feb 2026, 16:30 UTCFull timeTottenham Hotspur StadiumFull-time recap
1–4Full-time recap

Arsenal

LWWDD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricTottenhamArsenal
Shots6 shots/match20 shots/match▲
Shots on target5 shots/match7 shots/match▲
Possession40%60%
Corners2 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls17 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Arsenal's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Arsenal. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Arsenal's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Arsenal's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.8 goals/match2 goals/match1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Arsenal.

11.9 days▲Rest daysTottenham · Arsenal3.85 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricTottenhamArsenalBaseline
Rest days11.9 days3.85 days—
Matches last 14 days1 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Tottenham show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Tottenham's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.9 shots/match▲ShotsTottenham · Arsenal14.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricTottenhamArsenalBaseline
Shots10.9 shots/match14.6 shots/match12.5 shots/match
Shots against12.8 shots/match7.61 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Tottenham
0Draws
1Arsenal
Arsenal — Tottenham · Premier League4–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Tottenham favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Arsenal in 10 · 4 too close

1.37 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 27/28▲2 goals/match
1.52 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 27/28▲0.75 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 27/28▲14.6 shots/match
12.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 27/28▲7.61 shots/match
3.81 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 27/28▲4.96 shots/match
4.3 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 27/28▲2.25 shots/match
50.6%Possessionseason · 27/2857.6%
4.81 corners/matchCornersseason · 27/285.89 corners/match
5.19 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 27/28▲3 corners/match
2.7 cards/matchCardsseason · 27/28▲1.36 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 27/2810.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
26%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 27/28▲46%
81%Scoring frequencyseason · 27/28▲89%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Tottenham52.5
Arsenal82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Tottenham35.8
Arsenal89.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Tottenham30.8
Arsenal97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Tottenham7.5
Arsenal67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Tottenham90
Arsenal17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Tottenham42.5
Arsenal92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Tottenham46.9
Arsenal75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.8 goals/match
2.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲13.4 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target5/55.2 shots/match
46%Possession5/555.2%
2 corners/matchCorners5/55.8 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/51.2 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls5/59.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.3 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.6 shots/matchShots10/10▲14 shots/match
4.7 shots/matchShots on target10/104.9 shots/match
48.1%Possession10/1054.3%
3.4 corners/matchCorners10/105.8 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards10/101.4 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

27 / 28 matches
1.37 goals/matchGoals scored27/28▲2 goals/match
1.52 goals/matchGoals allowed27/28▲0.75 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.9 shots/matchShots27/28▲14.6 shots/match
3.81 shots/matchShots on target27/28▲4.96 shots/match
50.6%Possession27/2857.6%
4.81 corners/matchCorners27/285.89 corners/match
2.7 cards/matchCards27/281.36 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls27/2810.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

14 / 15 matches
1.21 goals/matchGoals scored14/15▲1.67 goals/match
1.57 goals/matchGoals allowed14/15▲0.87 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.9 shots/matchShots14/15▲13.3 shots/match
3.93 shots/matchShots on target14/15▲5 shots/match
52.1%Possession14/1557%
5.07 corners/matchCorners14/155.93 corners/match
3.14 cards/matchCards14/151.73 cards/match
12.1 fouls/matchFouls14/1510.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

11.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.85 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples27 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Feb 2026, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsTottenhamArsenal
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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