PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Wed, 18 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timeMolineux StadiumFull-time recap

Wolves

DLLLD
2–2Full-time recap

Arsenal

DLWWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricWolvesArsenal
Shots5 shots/match10 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match4 shots/match▲
Possession42%58%
Corners1 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls6 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Wolves's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Arsenal's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Wolves show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Wolves's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

9.15 shots/match▲ShotsWolves · Arsenal14.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricWolvesArsenalBaseline
Shots9.15 shots/match14.4 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against13.8 shots/match7.67 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Arsenal's recent record differs from the season

weak

Arsenal's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.93 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match1.93 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Arsenal have recorded the higher season possession share.

43.6%▲PossessionWolves · Arsenal57.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.9 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricWolvesArsenalBaseline
Possession43.6%57.5%50%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Wolves
0Draws
1Arsenal
Arsenal — Wolves · Premier League2–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Wolves favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Arsenal in 10 · 4 too close

0.67 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 27/27▲1.93 goals/match
1.85 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 27/27▲0.74 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
9.15 shots/matchShotsseason · 27/27▲14.4 shots/match
13.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 27/27▲7.67 shots/match
3.15 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 27/27▲4.89 shots/match
4.63 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 27/27▲2.15 shots/match
43.6%Possessionseason · 27/2757.5%
3.3 corners/matchCornersseason · 27/275.93 corners/match
6.04 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 27/27▲3.04 corners/match
2.19 cards/matchCardsseason · 27/27▲1.37 cards/match
13.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 27/2710 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
11%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 27/27▲48%
48%Scoring frequencyseason · 27/27▲89%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Wolves12.5
Arsenal82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Wolves5.8
Arsenal87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Wolves15.8
Arsenal97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Wolves2.5
Arsenal67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Wolves87.5
Arsenal17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Wolves2.5
Arsenal92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Wolves28.8
Arsenal73.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.4 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲12.4 shots/match
3.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.6 shots/match
40%Possession5/554.4%
3.4 corners/matchCorners5/56.6 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/51.4 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls5/59.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.1 goals/match
1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.4 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.8 shots/match
39.8%Possession10/1053.6%
4.2 corners/matchCorners10/106 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards10/101.5 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

27 / 27 matches
0.67 goals/matchGoals scored27/27▲1.93 goals/match
1.85 goals/matchGoals allowed27/27▲0.74 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.15 shots/matchShots27/27▲14.4 shots/match
3.15 shots/matchShots on target27/27▲4.89 shots/match
43.6%Possession27/2757.5%
3.3 corners/matchCorners27/275.93 corners/match
2.19 cards/matchCards27/271.37 cards/match
13.5 fouls/matchFouls27/2710 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

14 / 14 matches
0.93 goals/matchGoals scored14/14▲1.5 goals/match
2.14 goals/matchGoals allowed14/14▲0.86 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.86 shots/matchShots14/14▲12.8 shots/match
3.64 shots/matchShots on target14/14▲4.86 shots/match
44.8%Possession14/1456.8%
3.07 corners/matchCorners14/146 corners/match
1.64 cards/matchCards14/141.79 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls14/1410.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.02 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples27 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 19 Feb 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsWolvesArsenal
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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