PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 21 Feb 2026, 15:00 UTCFull timeVilla ParkFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

Leeds

WDLWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAston VillaLeeds
Shots16 shots/match▲14 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match4 shots/match
Possession67%33%
Corners7 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match16 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Aston Villa have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Aston Villa's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.41 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match1.41 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Aston Villa have recorded the higher season possession share.

53.7%▲PossessionAston Villa · Leeds45.1%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.6 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricAston VillaLeedsBaseline
Possession53.7%45.1%50.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Aston Villa
0Draws
0Leeds
Leeds — Aston Villa · Premier League1–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Aston Villa favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Leeds in 1 · 9 too close

1.41 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 27/271.37 goals/match
1.04 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 27/271.7 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 27/2712.3 shots/match
12.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 27/2712.5 shots/match
4.33 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 27/273.96 shots/match
4.22 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 27/274.19 shots/match
53.7%Possessionseason · 27/2745.1%
5.41 corners/matchCornersseason · 27/274.33 corners/match
4.74 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 27/27▲4.48 corners/match
1.52 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 27/271.67 cards/match
9.85 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 27/2710.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
30%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 27/2715%
70%Scoring frequencyseason · 27/2774%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Aston Villa77.5
Leeds32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Aston Villa56.7
Leeds45.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Aston Villa49.2
Leeds35.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Aston Villa37.5
Leeds92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa17.5
Leeds40
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa62.5
Leeds27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Aston Villa48.1
Leeds41.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.4 goals/match
0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.8 shots/match▲Shots5/59.8 shots/match
4.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.2 shots/match
55%Possession5/543%
7 corners/matchCorners5/53.2 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards5/52.6 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls5/512.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.3 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.5 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.9 shots/match
4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.8 shots/match
56.1%Possession10/1043.2%
6 corners/matchCorners10/104.5 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards10/101.8 cards/match
9.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

27 / 27 matches
1.41 goals/matchGoals scored27/271.37 goals/match
1.04 goals/match▲Goals allowed27/271.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.7 shots/matchShots27/2712.3 shots/match
4.33 shots/match▲Shots on target27/273.96 shots/match
53.7%Possession27/2745.1%
5.41 corners/matchCorners27/274.33 corners/match
1.52 cards/matchCards27/271.67 cards/match
9.85 fouls/matchFouls27/2710.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

14 / 14 matches
1.43 goals/match▲Goals scored14/141.07 goals/match
0.79 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/142 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.9 shots/match▲Shots14/1410.5 shots/match
4.57 shots/match▲Shots on target14/143.5 shots/match
54.8%Possession14/1443.6%
5.93 corners/matchCorners14/143.43 corners/match
1.29 cards/matchCards14/141.71 cards/match
9.64 fouls/matchFouls14/1410.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

9.81 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/110.8 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples27 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 21 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAston VillaLeeds
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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