Premier League · 2025Sat, 21 Feb 2026, 15:00 UTCFull timeBrentford Community StadiumFull-time recap

Brentford

LLWWD

0–2Full-time recap

Brighton

DLDLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Brentford	Brighton
Shots	13 shots/match▲	11 shots/match
Shots on target	3 shots/match	7 shots/match▲
Possession	52%	48%
Corners	6 corners/match	4 corners/match
Fouls	9 fouls/match	14 fouls/match
Yellow cards	1 cards/match▲	2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Brighton's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Brighton's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Brighton's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.33 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.8 goals/match	1.33 goals/match	1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Brentford

0Draws

1Brighton

22 Nov 2025Brighton — Brentford · Premier League2–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Brentford favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Brighton in 5 · 7 too close

1.48 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 27/271.33 goals/match

1.37 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 27/27▲1.26 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

10.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 27/27▲12.8 shots/match

12.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 27/2712.3 shots/match

4 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 27/27▲4.33 shots/match

4.07 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 27/273.96 shots/match

46.6%Possessionseason · 27/2752.7%

4.96 corners/matchCornersseason · 27/274.89 corners/match

5.11 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 27/27▲4.74 corners/match

2 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 27/272.41 cards/match

11.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 27/2712 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

22%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 27/2722%

70%Scoring frequencyseason · 27/27▲78%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Brentford37.5

Brighton62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Brentford45

Brighton51.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Brentford49.2

Brighton62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Brentford22.5

Brighton47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Brentford67.5

Brighton87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Brentford52.5

Brighton42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Brentford50.6

Brighton61.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match

1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

10.4 shots/matchShots5/510.2 shots/match

2.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲3.8 shots/match

46.6%Possession5/553.4%

4.4 corners/matchCorners5/54.6 corners/match

2.2 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match

11.6 fouls/matchFouls5/512 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.1 goals/match

1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.1 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

11.8 shots/matchShots10/1011.3 shots/match

4.1 shots/matchShots on target10/104 shots/match

49.8%Possession10/1054.2%

4.8 corners/matchCorners10/104.7 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards10/102.4 cards/match

10.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

27 / 27 matches

1.48 goals/match▲Goals scored27/271.33 goals/match

1.37 goals/matchGoals allowed27/27▲1.26 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

10.5 shots/matchShots27/27▲12.8 shots/match

4 shots/matchShots on target27/27▲4.33 shots/match

46.6%Possession27/2752.7%

4.96 corners/matchCorners27/274.89 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards27/272.41 cards/match

11.2 fouls/matchFouls27/2712 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

14 / 14 matches

1.71 goals/match▲Goals scored14/141.14 goals/match

1.07 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/141.43 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

11.4 shots/matchShots14/1411.9 shots/match

4.14 shots/matchShots on target14/144.07 shots/match

45.6%Possession14/1451.1%

4.29 corners/matchCorners14/144.5 corners/match

1.71 cards/matchCards14/143.21 cards/match

11.1 fouls/matchFouls14/1413 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.79 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/19.81 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples27 / 27home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 21 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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