PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 21 Feb 2026, 15:00 UTCFull timeStamford BridgeFull-time recap

Chelsea

WWWWD
1–1Full-time recap

Burnley

DDLLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricChelseaBurnley
Shots12 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots on target2 shots/match4 shots/match▲
Possession67%33%
Corners9 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards4 cards/match2 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Chelsea's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Chelsea's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Chelsea's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Chelsea's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.78 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match1.78 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Chelsea show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Chelsea's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.6 shots/match▲ShotsChelsea · Burnley9.11 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricChelseaBurnleyBaseline
Shots13.6 shots/match9.11 shots/match12.5 shots/match
Shots against11 shots/match16.5 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Chelsea have recorded the higher season possession share.

58.7%▲PossessionChelsea · Burnley41.1%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 17.6 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricChelseaBurnleyBaseline
Possession58.7%41.1%50.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Chelsea
0Draws
0Burnley
Burnley — Chelsea · Premier League0–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Chelsea favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · Burnley in 1 · 4 too close

1.78 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 27/271.07 goals/match
1.15 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 27/271.93 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 27/279.11 shots/match
11 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 27/2716.5 shots/match
4.7 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 27/272.96 shots/match
3.81 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 27/275.7 shots/match
58.7%Possessionseason · 27/2741.1%
5.85 corners/matchCornersseason · 27/273.44 corners/match
4.3 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 27/275.85 corners/match
2.67 cards/matchCardsseason · 27/27▲1.81 cards/match
11.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 27/279.96 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
33%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 27/2711%
93%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 27/2767%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Chelsea87.5
Burnley2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Chelsea79.2
Burnley7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Chelsea79.2
Burnley2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Chelsea27.5
Burnley17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Chelsea82.5
Burnley35
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Chelsea87.5
Burnley12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Chelsea78.8
Burnley11.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14 shots/match▲Shots5/510.4 shots/match
4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.2 shots/match
65.4%Possession5/543.2%
6.2 corners/matchCorners5/53 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls5/59.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.9 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.9 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.2 shots/match
4.1 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.5 shots/match
59.1%Possession10/1042%
6.5 corners/matchCorners10/103.1 corners/match
3.1 cards/matchCards10/102.1 cards/match
10.1 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

27 / 27 matches
1.78 goals/match▲Goals scored27/271.07 goals/match
1.15 goals/match▲Goals allowed27/271.93 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.6 shots/match▲Shots27/279.11 shots/match
4.7 shots/match▲Shots on target27/272.96 shots/match
58.7%Possession27/2741.1%
5.85 corners/matchCorners27/273.44 corners/match
2.67 cards/matchCards27/271.81 cards/match
11.1 fouls/matchFouls27/279.96 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

14 / 14 matches
1.64 goals/match▲Goals scored14/141.21 goals/match
1.14 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/142.36 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.5 shots/match▲Shots14/148.36 shots/match
4.43 shots/match▲Shots on target14/143 shots/match
60.5%Possession14/1439.3%
7 corners/matchCorners14/143.64 corners/match
2.43 cards/matchCards14/142.14 cards/match
10.9 fouls/matchFouls14/1410.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

10.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/19.81 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples27 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 21 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsChelseaBurnley
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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