Premier League · 2025Fri, 6 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timeElland RoadFull-time recap

Leeds

DLWDL

3–1Full-time recap

Nottingham Forest

LWDWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Leeds	Nottingham Forest
Shots	14 shots/match	16 shots/match▲
Shots on target	5 shots/match	6 shots/match▲
Possession	56%	44%
Corners	5 corners/match	10 corners/match
Fouls	9 fouls/match	12 fouls/match
Yellow cards	1 cards/match	1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season

weak

Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.2 goals/match	1 goals/match	1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Leeds

0Draws

1Nottingham Forest

9 Nov 2025Nottingham Forest — Leeds · Premier League3–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Leeds favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 2 · 7 too close

1.36 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 25/251 goals/match

1.72 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 25/25▲1.52 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

12.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 25/2511.9 shots/match

12.1 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 25/2512.8 shots/match

4.04 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 25/253.76 shots/match

4.2 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 25/254.12 shots/match

46.1%Possessionseason · 25/2547.9%

4.56 corners/matchCornersseason · 25/255.52 corners/match

4.4 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 25/254.84 corners/match

1.48 cards/matchCardsseason · 25/251.52 cards/match

10 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 25/2510.8 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

16%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 25/25▲20%

72%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 25/2556%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Leeds32.5

Nottingham Forest42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Leeds45.8

Nottingham Forest29.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Leeds34.2

Nottingham Forest32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Leeds87.5

Nottingham Forest62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Leeds22.5

Nottingham Forest37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Leeds32.5

Nottingham Forest67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Leeds41.2

Nottingham Forest51.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

11.8 shots/match▲Shots5/510.2 shots/match

4.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.8 shots/match

46.2%Possession5/540.8%

4.8 corners/matchCorners5/55.8 corners/match

1.6 cards/matchCards5/50.8 cards/match

9.6 fouls/matchFouls5/58.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.1 goals/match

1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.3 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

12.9 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.6 shots/match

4.4 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.5 shots/match

46.1%Possession10/1043.3%

5.4 corners/matchCorners10/105.5 corners/match

1.1 cards/matchCards10/101.3 cards/match

8.8 fouls/matchFouls10/109.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

25 / 25 matches

1.36 goals/match▲Goals scored25/251 goals/match

1.72 goals/matchGoals allowed25/25▲1.52 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

12.5 shots/matchShots25/2511.9 shots/match

4.04 shots/match▲Shots on target25/253.76 shots/match

46.1%Possession25/2547.9%

4.56 corners/matchCorners25/255.52 corners/match

1.48 cards/matchCards25/251.52 cards/match

10 fouls/matchFouls25/2510.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

13 / 13 matches

1.69 goals/match▲Goals scored13/130.92 goals/match

1.38 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/131.54 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

14.2 shots/match▲Shots13/1310.3 shots/match

4.46 shots/match▲Shots on target13/133.92 shots/match

46.8%Possession13/1346.6%

5.31 corners/matchCorners13/134.85 corners/match

1.62 cards/matchCards13/131.69 cards/match

10.1 fouls/matchFouls13/1311.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.21 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.25 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples25 / 25home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 7 Feb 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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