PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Tue, 10 Feb 2026, 19:30 UTCFull timeStamford BridgeFull-time recap

Chelsea

LWWWW
2–2Full-time recap

Leeds

LWDLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricChelseaLeeds
Shots19 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession66%34%
Corners4 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards4 cards/match4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Chelsea's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Chelsea, Leeds. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Chelsea's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Chelsea's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.81 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.6 goals/match1.81 goals/match1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Chelsea, Leeds.

3.19 days▲Rest daysChelsea · Leeds3.98 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricChelseaLeedsBaseline
Rest days3.19 days3.98 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Leeds have a visible away split

moderate

Leeds's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.2 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.2 shots/match12.2 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Chelsea
0Draws
1Leeds
Leeds — Chelsea · Premier League3–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Chelsea favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · Leeds in 1 · 5 too close

1.81 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 26/261.38 goals/match
1.15 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 26/261.73 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.7 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 26/2612.2 shots/match
10.9 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 26/2612.3 shots/match
4.81 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 26/263.96 shots/match
3.81 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 26/264.19 shots/match
58.4%Possessionseason · 26/2645.6%
5.73 corners/matchCornersseason · 26/264.42 corners/match
4.27 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 26/264.38 corners/match
2.58 cards/matchCardsseason · 26/26▲1.58 cards/match
11.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 26/2610.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
35%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 26/2615%
92%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 26/2673%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Chelsea87.5
Leeds32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Chelsea80
Leeds48.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Chelsea79.2
Leeds35.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Chelsea37.5
Leeds87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Chelsea82.5
Leeds32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Chelsea87.5
Leeds27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Chelsea78.8
Leeds42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.4 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.8 shots/match▲Shots5/59.8 shots/match
4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.4 shots/match
61.2%Possession5/545.6%
5 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
9.4 fouls/matchFouls5/510.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.6 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed10/101.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.5 shots/match
4.3 shots/matchShots on target10/104.2 shots/match
57.7%Possession10/1045.2%
6 corners/matchCorners10/105.2 corners/match
3.2 cards/matchCards10/101.5 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls10/109.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

26 / 26 matches
1.81 goals/match▲Goals scored26/261.38 goals/match
1.15 goals/match▲Goals allowed26/261.73 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.7 shots/match▲Shots26/2612.2 shots/match
4.81 shots/match▲Shots on target26/263.96 shots/match
58.4%Possession26/2645.6%
5.73 corners/matchCorners26/264.42 corners/match
2.58 cards/matchCards26/261.58 cards/match
11.1 fouls/matchFouls26/2610.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

13 / 13 matches
1.69 goals/match▲Goals scored13/131.08 goals/match
1.15 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/132.08 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.7 shots/match▲Shots13/1310.2 shots/match
4.62 shots/match▲Shots on target13/133.46 shots/match
60%Possession13/1344.5%
6.85 corners/matchCorners13/133.54 corners/match
2.23 cards/matchCards13/131.54 cards/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls13/1310.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.19 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.98 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples26 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 10 Feb 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsChelseaLeeds
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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