PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Wed, 11 Feb 2026, 19:30 UTCFull timeCity GroundFull-time recap
0–0Full-time recap

Wolves

DDLLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNottingham ForestWolves
Shots35 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target10 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession63%37%
Corners8 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Wolves's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Nottingham Forest's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Wolves's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Wolves's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.62 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.2 goals/match0.62 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Nottingham Forest have a visible home split

moderate

Nottingham Forest's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.3 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.3 shots/match12.8 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Nottingham Forest
0Draws
0Wolves
Wolves — Nottingham Forest · Premier League0–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Nottingham Forest favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · Wolves in 0 · 4 too close

0.96 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 26/260.62 goals/match
1.46 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 26/261.85 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 26/269.31 shots/match
12.6 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 26/2613.9 shots/match
4 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 26/263.19 shots/match
4.08 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 26/264.65 shots/match
48.5%Possessionseason · 26/2643.6%
5.62 corners/matchCornersseason · 26/263.38 corners/match
4.73 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 26/266.15 corners/match
1.46 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 26/262.19 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 26/2613.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
23%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 26/2612%
54%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 26/2646%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nottingham Forest42.5
Wolves12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nottingham Forest37.5
Wolves5.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nottingham Forest40.8
Wolves15.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nottingham Forest77.5
Wolves2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest35
Wolves87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest72.5
Wolves7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nottingham Forest58.8
Wolves30
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.2 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.6 shots/match▲Shots5/510.4 shots/match
3.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.2 shots/match
42.8%Possession5/538.2%
6.4 corners/matchCorners5/54 corners/match
0.8 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
9.2 fouls/matchFouls5/512.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.8 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.7 goals/match
1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/101.3 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.6 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.4 shots/match
3.9 shots/matchShots on target10/103.8 shots/match
44.8%Possession10/1039.9%
6 corners/matchCorners10/104.4 corners/match
1.2 cards/matchCards10/102 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

26 / 26 matches
0.96 goals/match▲Goals scored26/260.62 goals/match
1.46 goals/match▲Goals allowed26/261.85 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.8 shots/match▲Shots26/269.31 shots/match
4 shots/match▲Shots on target26/263.19 shots/match
48.5%Possession26/2643.6%
5.62 corners/matchCorners26/263.38 corners/match
1.46 cards/matchCards26/262.19 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls26/2613.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

13 / 13 matches
1 goals/match▲Goals scored13/130.38 goals/match
1.38 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/131.54 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.3 shots/match▲Shots13/138.38 shots/match
4.08 shots/match▲Shots on target13/132.62 shots/match
50.3%Possession13/1342.2%
6.38 corners/matchCorners13/133.54 corners/match
1.23 cards/matchCards13/132.77 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls13/1314.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.98 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.19 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples26 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 11 Feb 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNottingham ForestWolves
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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