PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 24 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTCFull timeEtihad StadiumFull-time recap
2–0Full-time recap

Wolves

LDWDD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricManchester CityWolves
Shots11 shots/match11 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Possession64%36%
Corners4 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls16 fouls/match14 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Manchester City's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Wolves's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Manchester City's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Manchester City's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.04 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match2.04 goals/match1.43 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Wolves show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Wolves's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14.1 shots/match▲ShotsManchester City · Wolves9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricManchester CityWolvesBaseline
Shots14.1 shots/match9 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots against9.35 shots/match13.2 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Manchester City have recorded the higher season possession share.

59.4%▲PossessionManchester City · Wolves44%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 15.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricManchester CityWolvesBaseline
Possession59.4%44%50.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Manchester City
0Draws
0Wolves
Wolves — Manchester City · Premier League0–4

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Manchester City favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · Wolves in 0 · 4 too close

2.04 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 23/230.65 goals/match
0.91 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 23/231.87 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
14.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 23/239 shots/match
9.35 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 23/2313.2 shots/match
5.09 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 23/233.04 shots/match
3.3 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 23/234.39 shots/match
59.4%Possessionseason · 23/2344%
5.61 corners/matchCornersseason · 23/233.39 corners/match
3.78 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 23/236.17 corners/match
1.7 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 23/232.22 cards/match
9.87 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 23/2314.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
43%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 23/239%
83%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 23/2348%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Manchester City92.5
Wolves27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Manchester City90.8
Wolves5.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Manchester City92.5
Wolves20
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Manchester City42.5
Wolves2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Manchester City31.2
Wolves86.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Manchester City82.5
Wolves2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Manchester City70
Wolves28.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1 goals/match
0.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/50.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.6 shots/match▲Shots5/510.2 shots/match
3.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲3.8 shots/match
63.4%Possession5/540.2%
5.8 corners/matchCorners5/55.4 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
9.6 fouls/matchFouls5/513.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.8 goals/match
0.9 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.7 shots/match▲Shots10/108.5 shots/match
4.7 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103 shots/match
61.7%Possession10/1039.5%
5 corners/matchCorners10/103.8 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards10/102.3 cards/match
9.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1014.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

23 / 23 matches
2.04 goals/match▲Goals scored23/230.65 goals/match
0.91 goals/match▲Goals allowed23/231.87 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.1 shots/match▲Shots23/239 shots/match
5.09 shots/match▲Shots on target23/233.04 shots/match
59.4%Possession23/2344%
5.61 corners/matchCorners23/233.39 corners/match
1.7 cards/matchCards23/232.22 cards/match
9.87 fouls/matchFouls23/2314.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

12 / 12 matches
2.42 goals/match▲Goals scored12/120.42 goals/match
0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/121.67 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16 shots/match▲Shots12/128.5 shots/match
6.25 shots/match▲Shots on target12/122.58 shots/match
59.7%Possession12/1242.7%
7 corners/matchCorners12/123.67 corners/match
1.42 cards/matchCards12/122.83 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls12/1214.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.04 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples23 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 24 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsManchester CityWolves
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match