PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sun, 18 Jan 2026, 14:00 UTCFull timeMolineux StadiumFull-time recap

Wolves

LLDWD
0–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricWolvesNewcastle
Shots6 shots/match12 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match2 shots/match
Possession33%67%
Corners4 corners/match7 corners/match
Fouls14 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Wolves's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Wolves's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Wolves's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Wolves's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.68 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.68 goals/match1.43 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Wolves show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Wolves's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

8.91 shots/match▲ShotsWolves · Newcastle12.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricWolvesNewcastleBaseline
Shots8.91 shots/match12.9 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots against13.3 shots/match10.7 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Newcastle have recorded the higher season possession share.

44.4%▲PossessionWolves · Newcastle53.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricWolvesNewcastleBaseline
Possession44.4%53.5%51%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Wolves
0Draws
1Newcastle
Newcastle — Wolves · Premier League1–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Wolves favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Newcastle in 10 · 4 too close

0.68 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 22/22▲1.45 goals/match
1.86 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 22/22▲1.23 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
8.91 shots/matchShotsseason · 22/22▲12.9 shots/match
13.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 22/22▲10.7 shots/match
3.14 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 22/22▲4.68 shots/match
4.41 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 22/22▲3.77 shots/match
44.4%Possessionseason · 22/2253.5%
3.27 corners/matchCornersseason · 22/226.45 corners/match
6.27 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 22/22▲5.23 corners/match
2.18 cards/matchCardsseason · 22/22▲1.55 cards/match
14.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 22/229.32 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
9%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 22/22▲32%
50%Scoring frequencyseason · 22/22▲73%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Wolves27.5
Newcastle77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Wolves6.7
Newcastle63.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Wolves20.8
Newcastle72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Wolves2.5
Newcastle52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Wolves85
Newcastle11.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Wolves2.5
Newcastle97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Wolves29.4
Newcastle59.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲15.6 shots/match
4.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.8 shots/match
39.6%Possession5/561.6%
5 corners/matchCorners5/57.6 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
13.2 fouls/matchFouls5/56.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.9 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8.3 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.4 shots/match
3.3 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.8 shots/match
40.7%Possession10/1058.2%
3.5 corners/matchCorners10/107.7 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards10/101.7 cards/match
15 fouls/matchFouls10/107.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

22 / 22 matches
0.68 goals/matchGoals scored22/22▲1.45 goals/match
1.86 goals/matchGoals allowed22/22▲1.23 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8.91 shots/matchShots22/22▲12.9 shots/match
3.14 shots/matchShots on target22/22▲4.68 shots/match
44.4%Possession22/2253.5%
3.27 corners/matchCorners22/226.45 corners/match
2.18 cards/matchCards22/221.55 cards/match
14.1 fouls/matchFouls22/229.32 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 11 matches
0.91 goals/matchGoals scored11/110.91 goals/match
2.09 goals/matchGoals allowed11/11▲1.09 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.55 shots/matchShots11/11▲11.6 shots/match
3.55 shots/matchShots on target11/113.45 shots/match
45.5%Possession11/1156.3%
3.09 corners/matchCorners11/115.45 corners/match
1.55 cards/matchCards11/111.64 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls11/117.91 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

10.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/110.7 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples22 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 18 Jan 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsWolvesNewcastle
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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