PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sun, 18 Jan 2026, 16:30 UTCFull timeVilla ParkFull-time recap
0–1Full-time recap

Everton

LDWLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAston VillaEverton
Shots18 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession63%37%
Corners6 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls15 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Aston Villa have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Aston Villa's recent record differs from the season

weak

Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.5 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.5 goals/match1.43 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Aston Villa have recorded the higher season possession share.

53.5%▲PossessionAston Villa · Everton42.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricAston VillaEvertonBaseline
Possession53.5%42.7%51%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Aston Villa
1Draws
0Everton
Everton — Aston Villa · Premier League0–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Aston Villa favored in 6 of 14 directional metrics · Everton in 1 · 7 too close

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 22/221.09 goals/match
1.14 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 22/221.14 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 22/2210.8 shots/match
12.8 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 22/2213.7 shots/match
4.32 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 22/223.14 shots/match
4.18 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 22/224.18 shots/match
53.5%Possessionseason · 22/2242.7%
5.05 corners/matchCornersseason · 22/224.18 corners/match
4.68 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 22/225.27 corners/match
1.55 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 22/222.05 cards/match
9.77 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 22/2210.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
27%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 22/22▲41%
68%Scoring frequencyseason · 22/2268%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Aston Villa72.5
Everton7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Aston Villa57.5
Everton24.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Aston Villa48.3
Everton43.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Aston Villa17.5
Everton67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa22.5
Everton57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa47.5
Everton22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Aston Villa45
Everton29.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.2 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.2 shots/match▲Shots5/512.4 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54 shots/match
57.2%Possession5/540.6%
5 corners/matchCorners5/53.4 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
9 fouls/matchFouls5/510.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.1 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.2 shots/match
5.3 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.3 shots/match
53.1%Possession10/1041.5%
4.9 corners/matchCorners10/104.6 corners/match
1.3 cards/matchCards10/101.8 cards/match
9.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

22 / 22 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored22/221.09 goals/match
1.14 goals/matchGoals allowed22/221.14 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12 shots/match▲Shots22/2210.8 shots/match
4.32 shots/match▲Shots on target22/223.14 shots/match
53.5%Possession22/2242.7%
5.05 corners/matchCorners22/224.18 corners/match
1.55 cards/matchCards22/222.05 cards/match
9.77 fouls/matchFouls22/2210.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 11 matches
1.64 goals/match▲Goals scored11/110.91 goals/match
0.82 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/110.91 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.5 shots/match▲Shots11/119.18 shots/match
4.91 shots/match▲Shots on target11/112.55 shots/match
52.5%Possession11/1138.9%
5.18 corners/matchCorners11/113.36 corners/match
1.27 cards/matchCards11/111.64 cards/match
9.73 fouls/matchFouls11/1110.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

10.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/110.9 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples22 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 18 Jan 2026, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAston VillaEverton
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match