PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 17 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTCFull timeCity GroundFull-time recap
0–0Full-time recap

Arsenal

WWWWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNottingham ForestArsenal
Shots6 shots/match15 shots/match▲
Shots on target0 shots/match3 shots/match▲
Possession40%60%
Corners4 corners/match9 corners/match
Fouls8 fouls/match14 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nottingham Forest's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Nottingham Forest's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Nottingham Forest show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Nottingham Forest's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.1 shots/match▲ShotsNottingham Forest · Arsenal14.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNottingham ForestArsenalBaseline
Shots12.1 shots/match14.9 shots/match11.9 shots/match
Shots against12.9 shots/match7.82 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Nottingham Forest have a visible home split

moderate

Nottingham Forest's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.1 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.1 shots/match12.1 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season

weak

Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.95 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match0.95 goals/match1.44 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Nottingham Forest
0Draws
1Arsenal
Arsenal — Nottingham Forest · Premier League3–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Nottingham Forest favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Arsenal in 10 · 4 too close

0.95 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 22/22▲1.82 goals/match
1.55 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 22/22▲0.64 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.1 shots/matchShotsseason · 22/22▲14.9 shots/match
12.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 22/22▲7.82 shots/match
3.86 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 22/22▲4.95 shots/match
4.27 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 22/22▲2.09 shots/match
49.4%Possessionseason · 22/2258.2%
5.36 corners/matchCornersseason · 22/225.77 corners/match
4.68 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 22/22▲3.05 corners/match
1.59 cards/matchCardsseason · 22/22▲1.36 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 22/2210.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
18%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 22/22▲50%
50%Scoring frequencyseason · 22/22▲86%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nottingham Forest42.5
Arsenal87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nottingham Forest34.2
Arsenal89.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nottingham Forest29.2
Arsenal97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nottingham Forest57.5
Arsenal77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest45
Arsenal25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest67.5
Arsenal90
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nottingham Forest56.2
Arsenal78.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲16.4 shots/match
3.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5 shots/match
44.8%Possession5/552.8%
5.4 corners/matchCorners5/55.4 corners/match
1 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls5/511.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.6 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.9 shots/match
3.5 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.9 shots/match
48.3%Possession10/1057.5%
5.6 corners/matchCorners10/104.8 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards10/101.8 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls10/109.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

22 / 22 matches
0.95 goals/matchGoals scored22/22▲1.82 goals/match
1.55 goals/matchGoals allowed22/22▲0.64 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.1 shots/matchShots22/22▲14.9 shots/match
3.86 shots/matchShots on target22/22▲4.95 shots/match
49.4%Possession22/2258.2%
5.36 corners/matchCorners22/225.77 corners/match
1.59 cards/matchCards22/221.36 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls22/2210.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 11 matches
1.09 goals/matchGoals scored11/11▲1.27 goals/match
1.55 goals/matchGoals allowed11/11▲0.82 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.1 shots/matchShots11/1113.5 shots/match
3.82 shots/matchShots on target11/11▲4.91 shots/match
50.7%Possession11/1157.1%
6.36 corners/matchCorners11/115.91 corners/match
1.27 cards/matchCards11/111.91 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls11/1110.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

10.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.9 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples22 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 17 Jan 2026, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNottingham ForestArsenal
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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