UEFA Champions League · 2025Tue, 20 Jan 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timeSan Siro/Giuseppe MeazzaFull-time recap

Inter

WWWLL

1–3Full-time recap

Arsenal

WWWWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Inter	Arsenal
Shots	18 shots/match▲	17 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match	6 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.33 xG/match	2.12 xG/match▲
Possession	51%	49%
Corners	4 corners/match	7 corners/match
Fouls	9 fouls/match	17 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Inter: 18 shots, 4 on target, 1.31 xG. Arsenal: 17 shots, 6 on target, 2.06 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Inter 1.31 xG · Arsenal 2.06 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The available record does not support a clear cross-team pattern. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Inter favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Arsenal in 9 · 3 too close

1.86 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 7/7▲2.86 goals/match

1 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 7/7▲0.29 goals/match

2.15 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 7/7▲2.29 xG/match

1 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 7/7▲0.72 xG/match

17.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 7/715.6 shots/match

10.9 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 7/712.1 shots/match

5.43 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 7/7▲7.43 shots/match

4.14 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 7/7▲2.86 shots/match

55.7%Possessionseason · 7/753%

5.57 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/74.71 corners/match

3.71 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 7/7▲3 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/712.1 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

43%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/7▲71%

86%Scoring frequencyseason · 7/7▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Inter83.3

Arsenal70.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Inter71.8

Arsenal85.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Inter75.7

Arsenal87

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Inter70.2

Arsenal63.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Inter41.7

Arsenal60.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Inter72.6

Arsenal58.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Inter66.1

Arsenal69.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲3.2 goals/match

1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.4 goals/match

1.96 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲2.37 xG/match

17.6 shots/match▲Shots5/516.4 shots/match

5.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲8.2 shots/match

57.8%Possession5/549.6%

5.8 corners/matchCorners5/55.6 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.2 fouls/matchFouls5/511.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

7 / 7 matches

1.86 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲2.86 goals/match

1 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲0.29 goals/match

2.15 xG/matchExpected goals7/7▲2.29 xG/match

17.6 shots/match▲Shots7/715.6 shots/match

5.43 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲7.43 shots/match

55.7%Possession7/753%

5.57 corners/matchCorners7/74.71 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.9 fouls/matchFouls7/712.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

7 / 7 matches

1.86 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲2.86 goals/match

1 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲0.29 goals/match

2.15 xG/matchExpected goals7/7▲2.29 xG/match

17.6 shots/match▲Shots7/715.6 shots/match

5.43 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲7.43 shots/match

55.7%Possession7/753%

5.57 corners/matchCorners7/74.71 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.9 fouls/matchFouls7/712.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches

1.5 goals/matchGoals scored4/4▲2.75 goals/match

1.25 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲0.25 goals/match

1.97 xG/matchExpected goals4/42.04 xG/match

17.8 shots/match▲Shots4/415.5 shots/match

5.25 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲7.75 shots/match

56%Possession4/454.8%

6 corners/matchCorners4/45.25 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.3 fouls/matchFouls4/410.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

42 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/141 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples7 / 7home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Wed, 21 Jan 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4