PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Wed, 7 Jan 2026, 19:30 UTCFull timeEtihad StadiumFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricManchester CityBrighton
Shots22 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession60%40%
Corners6 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls6 fouls/match16 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲6 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Manchester City's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Manchester City, Brighton. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Manchester City's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Manchester City's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.14 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match2.14 goals/match1.45 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Manchester City, Brighton.

3.08 days▲Rest daysManchester City · Brighton4.19 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricManchester CityBrightonBaseline
Rest days3.08 days4.19 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Manchester City
0Draws
1Brighton
Brighton — Manchester City · Premier League2–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Manchester City favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · Brighton in 0 · 4 too close

2.14 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 21/211.48 goals/match
0.9 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 21/211.33 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
14.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 21/2113.2 shots/match
9.19 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 21/2112.7 shots/match
5.33 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 21/214.43 shots/match
3.24 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 21/214.24 shots/match
58.8%Possessionseason · 21/2151.9%
5.67 corners/matchCornersseason · 21/214.67 corners/match
3.81 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 21/214.62 corners/match
1.67 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 21/212.62 cards/match
9.67 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/2112.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
43%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/2124%
86%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 21/2181%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Manchester City92.5
Brighton62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Manchester City90.8
Brighton62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Manchester City92.5
Brighton40.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Manchester City57.5
Brighton72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Manchester City27.5
Brighton90
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Manchester City80
Brighton37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Manchester City69.4
Brighton65
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.6 shots/match▲Shots5/512.2 shots/match
5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54 shots/match
63.4%Possession5/553%
6 corners/matchCorners5/53.2 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/53.2 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls5/513 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.4 goals/match
1.1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.3 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.4 shots/match▲Shots10/1014.4 shots/match
5.5 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.3 shots/match
61.4%Possession10/1055.2%
5.7 corners/matchCorners10/104.2 corners/match
1.7 cards/matchCards10/102.7 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

21 / 21 matches
2.14 goals/match▲Goals scored21/211.48 goals/match
0.9 goals/match▲Goals allowed21/211.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.6 shots/match▲Shots21/2113.2 shots/match
5.33 shots/match▲Shots on target21/214.43 shots/match
58.8%Possession21/2151.9%
5.67 corners/matchCorners21/214.67 corners/match
1.67 cards/matchCards21/212.62 cards/match
9.67 fouls/matchFouls21/2112.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 11 matches
2.45 goals/match▲Goals scored11/111.18 goals/match
0.73 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/111.55 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.5 shots/match▲Shots11/1112.1 shots/match
6.45 shots/match▲Shots on target11/113.82 shots/match
59.3%Possession11/1151.5%
7.27 corners/matchCorners11/114.36 corners/match
1.45 cards/matchCards11/113.55 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls11/1113.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.08 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.19 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples21 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 7 Jan 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsManchester CityBrighton
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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