PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 20 Dec 2025, 15:00 UTCFull timeEtihad StadiumFull-time recap
3–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricManchester CityWest Ham
Shots17 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target8 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession66%34%
Corners6 corners/match0 corners/match
Fouls16 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Manchester City's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Manchester City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Manchester City's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Manchester City's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.41 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for3.4 goals/match2.41 goals/match1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Manchester City show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Manchester City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.1 shots/match▲ShotsManchester City · West Ham9.94 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricManchester CityWest HamBaseline
Shots14.1 shots/match9.94 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots against9.53 shots/match15.4 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Manchester City have recorded the higher season possession share.

57.8%▲PossessionManchester City · West Ham41.9%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 15.9 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricManchester CityWest HamBaseline
Possession57.8%41.9%51%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Manchester City favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · West Ham in 0 · 4 too close

2.41 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 17/171.12 goals/match
0.94 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 17/172.06 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
14.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 17/179.94 shots/match
9.53 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 17/1715.4 shots/match
5.53 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 17/173.59 shots/match
3.29 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 17/175.41 shots/match
57.8%Possessionseason · 17/1741.9%
5.59 corners/matchCornersseason · 17/175.24 corners/match
4 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 17/176.47 corners/match
1.65 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 17/171.76 cards/match
9.76 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 17/1710.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
47%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 17/176%
88%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 17/1765%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Manchester City82.5
West Ham7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Manchester City90.8
West Ham24.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Manchester City89.2
West Ham5.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Manchester City62.5
West Ham42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Manchester City18.8
West Ham55
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Manchester City82.5
West Ham62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Manchester City65
West Ham43.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
3.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.2 shots/match▲Shots5/59.8 shots/match
6.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.8 shots/match
59.2%Possession5/537.2%
4.8 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls5/511.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.6 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.3 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.9 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.4 shots/match▲Shots10/1010 shots/match
6.2 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.5 shots/match
58.4%Possession10/1039.3%
6.6 corners/matchCorners10/105 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards10/101.9 cards/match
10.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

17 / 17 matches
2.41 goals/match▲Goals scored17/171.12 goals/match
0.94 goals/match▲Goals allowed17/172.06 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.1 shots/match▲Shots17/179.94 shots/match
5.53 shots/match▲Shots on target17/173.59 shots/match
57.8%Possession17/1741.9%
5.59 corners/matchCorners17/175.24 corners/match
1.65 cards/matchCards17/171.76 cards/match
9.76 fouls/matchFouls17/1710.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 9 matches
2.78 goals/match▲Goals scored9/91 goals/match
0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.67 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.1 shots/match▲Shots9/99.78 shots/match
6.89 shots/match▲Shots on target9/93.44 shots/match
59.4%Possession9/941%
7.33 corners/matchCorners9/94.44 corners/match
1.33 cards/matchCards9/91.89 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls9/910.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.04 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.04 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 20 Dec 2025, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsManchester CityWest Ham
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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