PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sun, 14 Dec 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timeSelhurst ParkFull-time recap
0–3Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricCrystal PalaceManchester City
Shots16 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match6 shots/match▲
Possession39%61%
Corners2 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match6 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Manchester City's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Manchester City have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Manchester City's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Manchester City's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.38 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for3 goals/match2.38 goals/match1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Manchester City have recorded the higher season possession share.

42.1%▲PossessionCrystal Palace · Manchester City57.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 15.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricCrystal PalaceManchester CityBaseline
Possession42.1%57.3%51.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Crystal Palace favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Manchester City in 7 · 6 too close

1.25 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 16/16▲2.38 goals/match
0.94 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 16/161 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 16/16▲13.9 shots/match
10.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 16/16▲9.69 shots/match
4.25 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 16/16▲5.38 shots/match
3.5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 16/16▲3.31 shots/match
42.1%Possessionseason · 16/1657.3%
3.69 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/165.56 corners/match
5.06 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 16/16▲4.25 corners/match
1.69 cards/matchCardsseason · 16/161.69 cards/match
10.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/169.38 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
44%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/1644%
69%Scoring frequencyseason · 16/16▲88%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Crystal Palace7.5
Manchester City82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Crystal Palace45.8
Manchester City89.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Crystal Palace83.3
Manchester City87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Crystal Palace92.5
Manchester City62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Crystal Palace35
Manchester City20
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Crystal Palace15
Manchester City77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Crystal Palace37.5
Manchester City62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲3 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲14.2 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.8 shots/match
42.8%Possession5/559.4%
3.4 corners/matchCorners5/55.4 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
9.6 fouls/matchFouls5/59.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.4 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.6 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.7 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.8 shots/match
43.4%Possession10/1058.8%
4 corners/matchCorners10/106.2 corners/match
1.3 cards/matchCards10/101.9 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls10/109.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

16 / 16 matches
1.25 goals/matchGoals scored16/16▲2.38 goals/match
0.94 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/161 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.8 shots/matchShots16/16▲13.9 shots/match
4.25 shots/matchShots on target16/16▲5.38 shots/match
42.1%Possession16/1657.3%
3.69 corners/matchCorners16/165.56 corners/match
1.69 cards/matchCards16/161.69 cards/match
10.1 fouls/matchFouls16/169.38 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 8 matches
1.13 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲2 goals/match
1.25 goals/matchGoals allowed8/81.25 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.5 shots/match▲Shots8/811.9 shots/match
4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target8/84 shots/match
42.4%Possession8/856%
3.75 corners/matchCorners8/83.63 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards8/82 cards/match
9.88 fouls/matchFouls8/89.25 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.96 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 14 Dec 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsCrystal PalaceManchester City
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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