PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2025Santiago Bernabéu

Real Madrid 1–2 Manchester City · UEFA Champions League

1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Manchester City won 1–2.

Shots
1612
Shots on target
18
Expected goals
1.52.6
Possession
52%48%

Full time

What the match recorded

Manchester City beat Real Madrid 2–1. Recorded in this match (Real Madrid – Manchester City): shots 16–12, shots on target 1–8, expected goals 1.5–2.6, possession 52%–48%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Real Madrid have a visible home split

weak

Real Madrid's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

24 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season19.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots24 shots/match19.2 shots/match13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Manchester City show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Manchester City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

19.2 shots/match ▲ShotsReal Madrid · Manchester City16.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricReal MadridManchester CityBaseline
Shots19.2 shots/match16.7 shots/match13.8 shots/match
Shots against14.3 shots/match9.17 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.33 corners/match ●CornersReal Madrid · Manchester City5.17 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricReal MadridManchester CityBaseline
Corners6.33 corners/match5.17 corners/match4.67 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots12 shotsReal Madrid 16 shots, Manchester City 12 shots
  • Shots on target1 shot8 shotsReal Madrid 1 shot, Manchester City 8 shots
  • Expected goals1.5 xG2.6 xGReal Madrid 1.5 xG, Manchester City 2.6 xG
  • Possession52%48%Real Madrid 52%, Manchester City 48%
  • Corners3 corners3 cornersReal Madrid 3 corners, Manchester City 3 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls17 foulsReal Madrid 14 fouls, Manchester City 17 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Álvaro Carreras · Real Madrid · 5′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJérémy Doku · Manchester City · 14′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFederico Valverde · Real Madrid · 75′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAurélien Tchouaméni · Real Madrid · 18′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTijjani Reijnders · Manchester City · 89′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNico O'Reilly · Manchester City · 89′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRodrygo · Real Madrid · 28′ · 0.04 xG · goalJoško Gvardiol · Manchester City · 35′ · 0.04 xG · on targetRayan Cherki · Manchester City · 52′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJérémy Doku · Manchester City · 62′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 75′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedArda Güler · Real Madrid · 77′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRayan Cherki · Manchester City · 45′ · 0.05 xG · on targetFederico Valverde · Real Madrid · 4′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRodrygo · Real Madrid · 52′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedSavinho · Manchester City · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 7′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedEndrick · Real Madrid · 85′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedEndrick · Real Madrid · 84′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedJude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 86′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 77′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedJude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 50′ · 0.27 xG · off target or blockedErling Haaland · Manchester City · 45′ · 0.28 xG · on targetVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 80′ · 0.29 xG · off target or blockedErling Haaland · Manchester City · 59′ · 0.41 xG · on targetErling Haaland · Manchester City · 43′ · 0.82 xG · goalNico O'Reilly · Manchester City · 35′ · 0.91 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Real Madrid: 16 shots, 1 on target, 1.47 xG. Manchester City: 12 shots, 8 on target, 2.73 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Rodrygo · Real Madrid · 28′Nico O'Reilly · Manchester City · 35′Erling Haaland · Manchester City · 43′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Real Madrid 1.47 xG · Manchester City 2.73 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Real Madrid
2Draws
1Manchester City
Real Madrid — Manchester City · UEFA Champions League3–1
Manchester City — Real Madrid · UEFA Champions League2–3
Manchester City — Real Madrid · UEFA Champions League1–1
Real Madrid — Manchester City · UEFA Champions League3–3
Manchester City — Real Madrid · UEFA Champions League4–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Real Madrid favored in 3 of 11 directional metrics · Manchester City in 5 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Real Madrid6 matchesManchester City6 matches
2.17 goals/match ▲Goals scored6/62 goals/match
1.17 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲ 1 goal/match
2.25 xG/match ▲Expected goals6/61.93 xG/match
19.2 shots/match ▲Shots6/616.7 shots/match
7.83 shots/matchShots on target6/67.67 shots/match
58%Possession6/6● 60.7%
6.33 corners/match ●Corners6/65.17 corners/match
10 fouls/matchFouls6/610.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 11 Dec 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in UEFA Champions League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsReal MadridManchester City
CompetitionUEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 2025/26
Head-to-headReal Madrid — Manchester City
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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