UEFA Champions League · 2025Wed, 10 Dec 2025, 20:00 UTCFull timeSantiago BernabéuFull-time recap

Real Madrid

WWWLW

1–2Full-time recap

Manchester City

WDWWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Real Madrid	Manchester City
Shots	16 shots/match▲	12 shots/match
Shots on target	1 shots/match	8 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.5 xG/match	2.6 xG/match▲
Possession	52%	48%
Corners	3 corners/match	3 corners/match
Fouls	14 fouls/match	17 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Real Madrid: 16 shots, 1 on target, 1.47 xG. Manchester City: 12 shots, 8 on target, 2.73 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Real Madrid 1.47 xG · Manchester City 2.73 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Real Madrid's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: Manchester City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Real Madrid have a visible home split

weak

Real Madrid's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

24 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season19.2 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	24 shots/match	19.2 shots/match	13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Manchester City show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Manchester City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

19.2 shots/match▲ShotsReal Madrid · Manchester City16.7 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Real Madrid	Manchester City	Baseline
Shots	19.2 shots/match	16.7 shots/match	13.8 shots/match
Shots against	14.3 shots/match	9.17 shots/match	13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.33 corners/match▲CornersReal Madrid · Manchester City5.17 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Real Madrid	Manchester City	Baseline
Corners	6.33 corners/match	5.17 corners/match	4.67 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Real Madrid favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Manchester City in 5 · 6 too close

2.17 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 6/62 goals/match

1.17 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 6/6▲1 goals/match

2.25 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 6/61.93 xG/match

1.44 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 6/6▲1.01 xG/match

19.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 6/616.7 shots/match

14.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 6/6▲9.17 shots/match

7.83 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 6/67.67 shots/match

6.33 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 6/6▲2.17 shots/match

58%Possessionseason · 6/660.7%

6.33 corners/matchCornersseason · 6/65.17 corners/match

4 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 6/6▲3.33 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 6/610.5 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

33%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 6/633%

83%Scoring frequencyseason · 6/683%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Real Madrid91.7

Manchester City94

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Real Madrid88.4

Manchester City79.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Real Madrid43.8

Manchester City92.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Real Madrid84.5

Manchester City51.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid25

Manchester City39.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid88.1

Manchester City66.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Real Madrid74.1

Manchester City68.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/52 goals/match

1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.2 goals/match

1.97 xG/matchExpected goals5/51.88 xG/match

17.4 shots/match▲Shots5/515.4 shots/match

6.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲7.6 shots/match

61%Possession5/558%

5.8 corners/matchCorners5/54.4 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.2 fouls/matchFouls5/512 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

6 / 6 matches

2.17 goals/match▲Goals scored6/62 goals/match

1.17 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲1 goals/match

2.25 xG/match▲Expected goals6/61.93 xG/match

19.2 shots/match▲Shots6/616.7 shots/match

7.83 shots/matchShots on target6/67.67 shots/match

58%Possession6/660.7%

6.33 corners/matchCorners6/65.17 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10 fouls/matchFouls6/610.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

6 / 6 matches

2.17 goals/match▲Goals scored6/62 goals/match

1.17 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲1 goals/match

2.25 xG/match▲Expected goals6/61.93 xG/match

19.2 shots/match▲Shots6/616.7 shots/match

7.83 shots/matchShots on target6/67.67 shots/match

58%Possession6/660.7%

6.33 corners/matchCorners6/65.17 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10 fouls/matchFouls6/610.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

3 / 3 matches

1.33 goals/matchGoals scored3/3▲2 goals/match

1 goals/matchGoals allowed3/31 goals/match

2.61 xG/match▲Expected goals3/31.88 xG/match

24 shots/match▲Shots3/313.3 shots/match

8.67 shots/match▲Shots on target3/36.67 shots/match

53.7%Possession3/361.7%

8.33 corners/matchCorners3/33 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11 fouls/matchFouls3/315 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/115 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples6 / 6home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Thu, 11 Dec 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4