PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sun, 7 Dec 2025, 20:00 UTCFull timeEstadio Santiago BernabéuFull-time recap
0–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricReal MadridCelta Vigo
Shots23 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Possession58%42%
Corners8 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls6 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards6 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Real Madrid's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Real Madrid's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Real Madrid's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match2 goals/match1.17 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Real Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

19.9 shots/match▲ShotsReal Madrid · Celta Vigo10.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricReal MadridCelta VigoBaseline
Shots19.9 shots/match10.9 shots/match11.2 shots/match
Shots against10.1 shots/match12.6 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Real Madrid.

4.08 days▲Rest daysReal Madrid · Celta Vigo7.1 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricReal MadridCelta VigoBaseline
Rest days4.08 days7.1 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches1 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Real Madrid favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · Celta Vigo in 1 · 5 too close

2 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 16/151.2 goals/match
0.94 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 16/151.27 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
19.9 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 16/1510.9 shots/match
10.1 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 16/1512.6 shots/match
7.13 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 16/153.87 shots/match
3.31 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 16/154.73 shots/match
59.8%Possessionseason · 16/1550.9%
6.31 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/154.33 corners/match
3.13 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 16/154.8 corners/match
2.19 cards/matchCardsseason · 16/15▲2 cards/match
9.56 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1512.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
44%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/1513%
88%Scoring frequencyseason · 16/1587%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Real Madrid92.5
Celta Vigo62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Real Madrid92.5
Celta Vigo46.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Real Madrid86.7
Celta Vigo37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Real Madrid97.5
Celta Vigo22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid21.2
Celta Vigo30
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid82.5
Celta Vigo35
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Real Madrid69.4
Celta Vigo40
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.4 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
20.4 shots/match▲Shots5/510 shots/match
6.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.4 shots/match
57%Possession5/550.8%
7.2 corners/matchCorners5/52.6 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
7.6 fouls/matchFouls5/512.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.4 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.3 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
20.1 shots/match▲Shots10/1010 shots/match
7.1 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.9 shots/match
59.1%Possession10/1047.2%
6.5 corners/matchCorners10/103.1 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards10/102.2 cards/match
9.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

16 / 15 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored16/151.2 goals/match
0.94 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/151.27 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
19.9 shots/match▲Shots16/1510.9 shots/match
7.13 shots/match▲Shots on target16/153.87 shots/match
59.8%Possession16/1550.9%
6.31 corners/matchCorners16/154.33 corners/match
2.19 cards/matchCards16/152 cards/match
9.56 fouls/matchFouls16/1512.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 7 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71.57 goals/match
0.71 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/71 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
20.6 shots/match▲Shots7/710 shots/match
7.43 shots/match▲Shots on target7/74.14 shots/match
60.9%Possession7/746%
6.71 corners/matchCorners7/73.14 corners/match
3.29 cards/matchCards7/72.43 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls7/713.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.08 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.1 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples16 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 8 Dec 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsReal MadridCelta Vigo
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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