PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sun, 7 Dec 2025, 15:15 UTCFull timeEstadio de MestallaFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

Sevilla

LLWLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricValenciaSevilla
Shots11 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Possession48%52%
Corners2 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match18 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match▲6 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Sevilla's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Valencia's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Sevilla's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Sevilla's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.33 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.33 goals/match1.14 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Valencia have a visible home split

moderate

Valencia's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.9 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season10.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.9 shots/match10.7 shots/match11.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Valencia favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Sevilla in 4 · 7 too close

0.93 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 15/15▲1.33 goals/match
1.53 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 15/151.6 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 15/1510.7 shots/match
13 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 15/15▲11.1 shots/match
2.93 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 15/15▲3.2 shots/match
4.67 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 15/154.67 shots/match
47.1%Possessionseason · 15/1554.2%
4.87 corners/matchCornersseason · 15/155.13 corners/match
4.8 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 15/155.27 corners/match
2 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 15/153.27 cards/match
12.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 15/1515.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
27%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 15/1520%
67%Scoring frequencyseason · 15/15▲87%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Valencia42.5
Sevilla80
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Valencia26.7
Sevilla41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Valencia25
Sevilla37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Valencia32.5
Sevilla7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Valencia30
Sevilla92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Valencia52.5
Sevilla62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Valencia34.4
Sevilla50.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.2 shots/matchShots5/511 shots/match
2.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲3.2 shots/match
45.8%Possession5/556.8%
4.4 corners/matchCorners5/56 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards5/53.4 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls5/514.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.1 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.6 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.7 shots/match
3.1 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.9 shots/match
47.9%Possession10/1054.2%
4.4 corners/matchCorners10/106.2 corners/match
2.3 cards/matchCards10/103.3 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1015.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

15 / 15 matches
0.93 goals/matchGoals scored15/15▲1.33 goals/match
1.53 goals/matchGoals allowed15/151.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.7 shots/matchShots15/1510.7 shots/match
2.93 shots/matchShots on target15/15▲3.2 shots/match
47.1%Possession15/1554.2%
4.87 corners/matchCorners15/155.13 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards15/153.27 cards/match
12.1 fouls/matchFouls15/1515.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 8 matches
1.25 goals/matchGoals scored8/81.25 goals/match
0.88 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/81.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.9 shots/match▲Shots8/810 shots/match
3.63 shots/match▲Shots on target8/83 shots/match
52.4%Possession8/851.9%
6.13 corners/matchCorners8/85 corners/match
2.25 cards/matchCards8/83.13 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls8/813.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 7 Dec 2025, 19:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsValenciaSevilla
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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