PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Mon, 1 Dec 2025, 20:00 UTCFull timeCampo de Futbol de VallecasFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricRayo VallecanoValencia
Shots19 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession56%44%
Corners10 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Rayo Vallecano's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Valencia's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Rayo Vallecano's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Rayo Vallecano's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.93 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.93 goals/match1.11 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Valencia have a visible away split

moderate

Valencia's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

7 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season10.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots7 shots/match10.6 shots/match11.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Rayo Vallecano show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Rayo Vallecano's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.1 shots/match▲ShotsRayo Vallecano · Valencia10.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricRayo VallecanoValenciaBaseline
Shots13.1 shots/match10.6 shots/match11.2 shots/match
Shots against11.9 shots/match13.6 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Rayo Vallecano favored in 6 of 14 directional metrics · Valencia in 3 · 5 too close

0.93 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 14/140.93 goals/match
1.07 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 14/141.57 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 14/1410.6 shots/match
11.9 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 14/1413.6 shots/match
4.29 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 14/142.93 shots/match
4 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 14/144.93 shots/match
53.5%Possessionseason · 14/1447%
6.43 corners/matchCornersseason · 14/145.07 corners/match
5.36 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 14/14▲5 corners/match
2.36 cards/matchCardsseason · 14/14▲1.93 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 14/1412.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
36%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 14/1429%
57%Scoring frequencyseason · 14/14▲64%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Rayo Vallecano72.5
Valencia40
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Rayo Vallecano49.2
Valencia23.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Rayo Vallecano61.7
Valencia21.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Rayo Vallecano52.5
Valencia37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Rayo Vallecano65
Valencia28.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Rayo Vallecano87.5
Valencia57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Rayo Vallecano70.6
Valencia36.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲0.6 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.4 shots/match▲Shots5/512 shots/match
4.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.6 shots/match
54%Possession5/547.6%
6.6 corners/matchCorners5/55.4 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls5/511.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/100.9 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.1 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.8 shots/match
4.2 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.3 shots/match
52.7%Possession10/1047.5%
6.5 corners/matchCorners10/104.7 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards10/102.1 cards/match
13.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

14 / 14 matches
0.93 goals/matchGoals scored14/140.93 goals/match
1.07 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/141.57 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.1 shots/match▲Shots14/1410.6 shots/match
4.29 shots/match▲Shots on target14/142.93 shots/match
53.5%Possession14/1447%
6.43 corners/matchCorners14/145.07 corners/match
2.36 cards/matchCards14/141.93 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls14/1412.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 7 matches
0.67 goals/match▲Goals scored6/70.57 goals/match
0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/72.29 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.3 shots/match▲Shots6/77 shots/match
5.17 shots/match▲Shots on target6/72.14 shots/match
53.7%Possession6/741%
8 corners/matchCorners6/73.43 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards6/71.71 cards/match
12.7 fouls/matchFouls6/711.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.29 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/110 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 2 Dec 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsRayo VallecanoValencia
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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