PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sun, 7 Dec 2025, 17:30 UTCFull timeRCDE StadiumFull-time recap
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricEspanyolRayo Vallecano
Shots9 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Shots on target2 shots/match2 shots/match
Possession36%64%
Corners6 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls19 fouls/match22 fouls/match
Yellow cards4 cards/match▲8 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Rayo Vallecano's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Rayo Vallecano have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Rayo Vallecano's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Rayo Vallecano's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.87 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.2 goals/match0.87 goals/match1.17 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Rayo Vallecano have recorded the higher season possession share.

41%▲PossessionEspanyol · Rayo Vallecano54.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricEspanyolRayo VallecanoBaseline
Possession41%54.2%48.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Espanyol favored in 6 of 14 directional metrics · Rayo Vallecano in 2 · 6 too close

1.27 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 15/150.87 goals/match
1.07 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 15/151.07 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 15/1512.7 shots/match
13.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 15/15▲11.7 shots/match
4.47 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 15/154.13 shots/match
4.27 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 15/15▲3.87 shots/match
41%Possessionseason · 15/1554.2%
4.33 corners/matchCornersseason · 15/156.13 corners/match
4.53 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 15/155.4 corners/match
2.13 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 15/152.8 cards/match
13.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 15/1514 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
40%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 15/1533%
80%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 15/1553%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Espanyol12.5
Rayo Vallecano80
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Espanyol68.3
Rayo Vallecano45.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Espanyol48.3
Rayo Vallecano65.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Espanyol92.5
Rayo Vallecano47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Espanyol52.5
Rayo Vallecano85
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Espanyol35
Rayo Vallecano77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Espanyol61.9
Rayo Vallecano68.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.2 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲12.6 shots/match
2.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲3.6 shots/match
41.8%Possession5/556%
4.6 corners/matchCorners5/55.6 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards5/53.4 cards/match
14.6 fouls/matchFouls5/514.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.1 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.8 goals/match
0.9 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.8 shots/match▲Shots10/1012.2 shots/match
5.1 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.9 shots/match
42.6%Possession10/1053.2%
5.4 corners/matchCorners10/106.2 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards10/103 cards/match
13.1 fouls/matchFouls10/1014.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

15 / 15 matches
1.27 goals/match▲Goals scored15/150.87 goals/match
1.07 goals/matchGoals allowed15/151.07 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.2 shots/matchShots15/1512.7 shots/match
4.47 shots/match▲Shots on target15/154.13 shots/match
41%Possession15/1554.2%
4.33 corners/matchCorners15/156.13 corners/match
2.13 cards/matchCards15/152.8 cards/match
13.7 fouls/matchFouls15/1514 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 9 matches
1.44 goals/match▲Goals scored9/91 goals/match
1.11 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.2 shots/match▲Shots9/910.9 shots/match
4.89 shots/match▲Shots on target9/93.44 shots/match
42.8%Possession9/954.6%
4.67 corners/matchCorners9/94.89 corners/match
2.67 cards/matchCards9/93.11 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls9/914.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.9 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 7 Dec 2025, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsEspanyolRayo Vallecano
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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