PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sun, 14 Dec 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timeCity GroundFull-time recap
3–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNottingham ForestTottenham
Shots15 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Possession48%52%
Corners3 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Nottingham Forest's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.06 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.06 goals/match1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Nottingham Forest have a visible home split

moderate

Nottingham Forest's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.1 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.1 shots/match12.3 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Nottingham Forest.

7.96 days▲Rest daysNottingham Forest · Tottenham7.96 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricNottingham ForestTottenhamBaseline
Rest days7.96 days7.96 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Nottingham Forest favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Tottenham in 6 · 4 too close

1.06 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 16/16▲1.56 goals/match
1.56 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 16/16▲1.31 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 16/169.56 shots/match
12.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 16/16▲11.9 shots/match
4.06 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 16/163.25 shots/match
4.69 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 16/16▲4.31 shots/match
50.8%Possessionseason · 16/1653.1%
5.38 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/165.88 corners/match
4.75 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 16/165.38 corners/match
1.63 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 16/162.56 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1611.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
19%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/16▲31%
50%Scoring frequencyseason · 16/16▲81%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nottingham Forest42.5
Tottenham72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nottingham Forest37.5
Tottenham34.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nottingham Forest26.7
Tottenham46.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nottingham Forest57.5
Tottenham2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest45
Tottenham83.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest62.5
Tottenham87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nottingham Forest58.1
Tottenham49.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.2 shots/match▲Shots5/59.2 shots/match
4.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.8 shots/match
46.8%Possession5/551.6%
6 corners/matchCorners5/55.4 corners/match
1.2 cards/matchCards5/53 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls5/511.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.4 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.2 shots/match▲Shots10/108.5 shots/match
4.1 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.9 shots/match
46.8%Possession10/1050.3%
5.4 corners/matchCorners10/105.3 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards10/102.9 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

16 / 16 matches
1.06 goals/matchGoals scored16/16▲1.56 goals/match
1.56 goals/matchGoals allowed16/16▲1.31 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.3 shots/match▲Shots16/169.56 shots/match
4.06 shots/match▲Shots on target16/163.25 shots/match
50.8%Possession16/1653.1%
5.38 corners/matchCorners16/165.88 corners/match
1.63 cards/matchCards16/162.56 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls16/1611.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 8 matches
1.38 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲1.88 goals/match
1.63 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲1.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.1 shots/match▲Shots8/88.75 shots/match
4.25 shots/match▲Shots on target8/83.13 shots/match
51.8%Possession8/849.8%
6.5 corners/matchCorners8/85.75 corners/match
1.38 cards/matchCards8/82.38 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls8/811.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.96 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.96 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 14 Dec 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNottingham ForestTottenham
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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