PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sun, 14 Dec 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timeStadium of LightFull-time recap
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricSunderlandNewcastle
Shots5 shots/match6 shots/match▲
Shots on target1 shots/match2 shots/match▲
Possession47%53%
Corners3 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards5 cards/match4 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Newcastle's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Newcastle's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Newcastle's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Newcastle's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.31 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.31 goals/match1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Newcastle have a visible away split

moderate

Newcastle's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10 shots/match12.2 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Sunderland show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Sunderland's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

9.31 shots/match▲ShotsSunderland · Newcastle12.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricSunderlandNewcastleBaseline
Shots9.31 shots/match12.2 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots against14.7 shots/match10.4 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Sunderland favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Newcastle in 7 · 5 too close

1.19 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 16/16▲1.31 goals/match
1.06 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 16/161.25 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
9.31 shots/matchShotsseason · 16/16▲12.2 shots/match
14.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 16/16▲10.4 shots/match
2.88 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 16/16▲4.31 shots/match
4.56 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 16/16▲3.88 shots/match
42.3%Possessionseason · 16/1651.4%
3.56 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/166.13 corners/match
4.81 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 16/165.75 corners/match
2.19 cards/matchCardsseason · 16/16▲1.44 cards/match
9.81 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1610 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
31%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/1631%
69%Scoring frequencyseason · 16/16▲75%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Sunderland12.5
Newcastle52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Sunderland15
Newcastle52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Sunderland38.3
Newcastle71.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Sunderland22.5
Newcastle37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Sunderland45
Newcastle15
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Sunderland7.5
Newcastle97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Sunderland10.6
Newcastle58.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
7.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲12.8 shots/match
3.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.8 shots/match
40.2%Possession5/552%
4.2 corners/matchCorners5/57.6 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards5/51.4 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls5/58.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.7 goals/match
1.3 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8.7 shots/matchShots10/10▲13.3 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.3 shots/match
42%Possession10/1053%
3.3 corners/matchCorners10/106.2 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards10/101.4 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls10/108.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

16 / 16 matches
1.19 goals/matchGoals scored16/16▲1.31 goals/match
1.06 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/161.25 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.31 shots/matchShots16/16▲12.2 shots/match
2.88 shots/matchShots on target16/16▲4.31 shots/match
42.3%Possession16/1651.4%
3.56 corners/matchCorners16/166.13 corners/match
2.19 cards/matchCards16/161.44 cards/match
9.81 fouls/matchFouls16/1610 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 8 matches
1.88 goals/match▲Goals scored8/80.88 goals/match
0.88 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/81.25 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.5 shots/matchShots8/810 shots/match
3.25 shots/match▲Shots on target8/83 shots/match
43.4%Possession8/854.1%
3.88 corners/matchCorners8/84.75 corners/match
2.63 cards/matchCards8/81.75 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls8/88.88 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.96 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.96 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 14 Dec 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsSunderlandNewcastle
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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