PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sun, 14 Dec 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timeLondon StadiumFull-time recap
2–3Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricWest HamAston Villa
Shots10 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match4 shots/match▲
Possession41%59%
Corners5 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls18 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for West Ham, Aston Villa. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Aston Villa's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.56 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match1.56 goals/match1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for West Ham, Aston Villa.

7 days▲Rest daysWest Ham · Aston Villa8.06 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricWest HamAston VillaBaseline
Rest days7 days8.06 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Aston Villa show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Aston Villa's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10.1 shots/match▲ShotsWest Ham · Aston Villa11.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricWest HamAston VillaBaseline
Shots10.1 shots/match11.6 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots against15.3 shots/match12.6 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

West Ham favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 9 · 5 too close

1.19 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 16/16▲1.56 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 16/16▲1.06 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10.1 shots/matchShotsseason · 16/16▲11.6 shots/match
15.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 16/16▲12.6 shots/match
3.63 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 16/16▲4.25 shots/match
5.25 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 16/16▲3.94 shots/match
42.4%Possessionseason · 16/1652.9%
5.56 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/165.06 corners/match
6.5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 16/16▲4.88 corners/match
1.81 cards/matchCardsseason · 16/16▲1.56 cards/match
10.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1610.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
6%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/16▲31%
69%Scoring frequencyseason · 16/1669%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

West Ham17.5
Aston Villa67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

West Ham26.7
Aston Villa55
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

West Ham9.2
Aston Villa58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

West Ham42.5
Aston Villa17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

West Ham55
Aston Villa27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

West Ham77.5
Aston Villa42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

West Ham47.5
Aston Villa44.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.4 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲13.2 shots/match
2.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.8 shots/match
35.2%Possession5/550.8%
5.2 corners/matchCorners5/54.4 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/51 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls5/512.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.3 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.1 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.7 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.4 shots/match
3.2 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.2 shots/match
39.1%Possession10/1050.2%
5.3 corners/matchCorners10/104.9 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards10/101.4 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

16 / 16 matches
1.19 goals/matchGoals scored16/16▲1.56 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed16/16▲1.06 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.1 shots/matchShots16/16▲11.6 shots/match
3.63 shots/matchShots on target16/16▲4.25 shots/match
42.4%Possession16/1652.9%
5.56 corners/matchCorners16/165.06 corners/match
1.81 cards/matchCards16/161.56 cards/match
10.9 fouls/matchFouls16/1610.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 8 matches
1.25 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲1.5 goals/match
2.5 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲1.38 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.1 shots/matchShots8/8▲11.1 shots/match
3.75 shots/match▲Shots on target8/83.38 shots/match
42.9%Possession8/856%
6.13 corners/matchCorners8/84.88 corners/match
1.63 cards/matchCards8/81.75 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls8/811 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.06 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 14 Dec 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsWest HamAston Villa
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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