PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sun, 21 Dec 2025, 16:30 UTCFull timeVilla ParkFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAston VillaManchester United
Shots12 shots/match15 shots/match▲
Shots on target4 shots/match6 shots/match▲
Possession43%57%
Corners5 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls4 fouls/match2 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Manchester United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Aston Villa's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.59 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match1.59 goals/match1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Manchester United show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Manchester United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.6 shots/match▲ShotsAston Villa · Manchester United16.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAston VillaManchester UnitedBaseline
Shots11.6 shots/match16.5 shots/match11.9 shots/match
Shots against12.7 shots/match11.1 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Aston Villa favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Manchester United in 6 · 6 too close

1.59 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 17/17▲1.82 goals/match
1.06 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 17/171.65 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 17/17▲16.5 shots/match
12.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 17/17▲11.1 shots/match
4.24 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 17/17▲5.71 shots/match
4.06 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 17/174 shots/match
52.4%Possessionseason · 17/1754.4%
5.06 corners/matchCornersseason · 17/174.71 corners/match
4.88 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 17/17▲4.53 corners/match
1.53 cards/matchCardsseason · 17/171.59 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 17/179.65 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
29%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 17/176%
71%Scoring frequencyseason · 17/17▲82%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Aston Villa67.5
Manchester United77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Aston Villa57.5
Manchester United95
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Aston Villa55.8
Manchester United55.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Aston Villa22.5
Manchester United97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa17.5
Manchester United11.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa47.5
Manchester United32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Aston Villa43.1
Manchester United57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/52.4 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲19.6 shots/match
6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲7 shots/match
49%Possession5/559.6%
4.8 corners/matchCorners5/55.8 corners/match
1 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
9.8 fouls/matchFouls5/511.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/102.2 goals/match
1.1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.1 shots/matchShots10/10▲17.1 shots/match
4.9 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲6.3 shots/match
49%Possession10/1055.2%
4.8 corners/matchCorners10/105.1 corners/match
1.2 cards/matchCards10/101.8 cards/match
9.9 fouls/matchFouls10/109.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

17 / 17 matches
1.59 goals/matchGoals scored17/17▲1.82 goals/match
1.06 goals/match▲Goals allowed17/171.65 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.6 shots/matchShots17/17▲16.5 shots/match
4.24 shots/matchShots on target17/17▲5.71 shots/match
52.4%Possession17/1754.4%
5.06 corners/matchCorners17/174.71 corners/match
1.53 cards/matchCards17/171.59 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls17/179.65 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 9 matches
1.67 goals/matchGoals scored9/91.67 goals/match
0.78 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.78 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12 shots/matchShots9/9▲14.1 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target9/95.11 shots/match
49.1%Possession9/952.8%
5.22 corners/matchCorners9/94.67 corners/match
1.33 cards/matchCards9/91.44 cards/match
9.11 fouls/matchFouls9/98.67 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.85 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 21 Dec 2025, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAston VillaManchester United
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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