PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 20 Dec 2025, 20:00 UTCFull timeHill Dickinson StadiumFull-time recap

Everton

WLWWL
0–1Full-time recap

Arsenal

WDWLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricEvertonArsenal
Shots5 shots/match13 shots/match▲
Shots on target1 shots/match2 shots/match▲
Possession35%65%
Corners2 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls4 fouls/match5 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Everton's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Arsenal's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Everton show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Everton's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.3 shots/match▲ShotsEverton · Arsenal14.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricEvertonArsenalBaseline
Shots10.3 shots/match14.5 shots/match11.9 shots/match
Shots against13.2 shots/match7.29 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Arsenal's recent record differs from the season

weak

Arsenal's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.82 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.82 goals/match1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Everton have a visible home split

moderate

Everton's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

12.1 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season10.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12.1 shots/match10.3 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Everton favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Arsenal in 10 · 4 too close

1.06 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 17/17▲1.82 goals/match
1.18 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 17/17▲0.59 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 17/17▲14.5 shots/match
13.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 17/17▲7.29 shots/match
2.88 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 17/17▲4.94 shots/match
4.12 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 17/17▲2.18 shots/match
43.3%Possessionseason · 17/1759.8%
4.41 corners/matchCornersseason · 17/175.88 corners/match
4.88 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 17/17▲3 corners/match
2.12 cards/matchCardsseason · 17/17▲1.29 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 17/179.76 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
35%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 17/17▲53%
65%Scoring frequencyseason · 17/17▲94%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Everton22.5
Arsenal92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Everton15.8
Arsenal85.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Everton45.8
Arsenal97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Everton47.5
Arsenal57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Everton58.8
Arsenal3.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Everton27.5
Arsenal92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Everton29.4
Arsenal66.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.4 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10 shots/matchShots5/5▲13.4 shots/match
2.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.8 shots/match
42.4%Possession5/562.2%
5.8 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls5/58 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.7 goals/match
1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.2 shots/matchShots10/10▲13.9 shots/match
2.4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.5 shots/match
41.4%Possession10/1061%
5 corners/matchCorners10/104.7 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards10/101.3 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls10/108.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

17 / 17 matches
1.06 goals/matchGoals scored17/17▲1.82 goals/match
1.18 goals/matchGoals allowed17/17▲0.59 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.3 shots/matchShots17/17▲14.5 shots/match
2.88 shots/matchShots on target17/17▲4.94 shots/match
43.3%Possession17/1759.8%
4.41 corners/matchCorners17/175.88 corners/match
2.12 cards/matchCards17/171.29 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls17/179.76 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 9 matches
1.22 goals/matchGoals scored9/91.22 goals/match
1.11 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲0.78 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.1 shots/matchShots9/9▲13.4 shots/match
3.67 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲5.11 shots/match
46.8%Possession9/956.8%
5.44 corners/matchCorners9/95.67 corners/match
2.44 cards/matchCards9/92.11 cards/match
9.89 fouls/matchFouls9/910.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.21 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 21 Dec 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsEvertonArsenal
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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