PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 20 Dec 2025, 20:00 UTCFull timeElland RoadFull-time recap

Leeds

LLWDD
4–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLeedsCrystal Palace
Shots20 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target8 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession53%47%
Corners9 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls5 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Leeds's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Leeds's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Leeds's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Leeds's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.41 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.6 goals/match1.41 goals/match1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Leeds have a visible home split

moderate

Leeds's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.8 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.8 shots/match13.1 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Leeds favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Crystal Palace in 3 · 7 too close

1.41 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 17/171.24 goals/match
1.82 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 17/17▲1.12 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 17/1711.6 shots/match
11.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 17/1711.3 shots/match
4.06 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 17/174.18 shots/match
4.12 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 17/17▲3.76 shots/match
46.3%Possessionseason · 17/1742.4%
4.24 corners/matchCornersseason · 17/173.76 corners/match
3.41 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 17/175.29 corners/match
1.59 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 17/171.76 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 17/1710.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
12%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 17/17▲41%
71%Scoring frequencyseason · 17/1771%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Leeds37.5
Crystal Palace15
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Leeds50
Crystal Palace44.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Leeds42.5
Crystal Palace74.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Leeds92.5
Crystal Palace87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Leeds36.2
Crystal Palace37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Leeds22.5
Crystal Palace17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Leeds44.4
Crystal Palace35.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
1.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.2 shots/match▲Shots5/510.6 shots/match
5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.6 shots/match
41.6%Possession5/541.8%
4.4 corners/matchCorners5/53.6 corners/match
1.2 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
9.8 fouls/matchFouls5/59.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.7 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.2 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.7 shots/match▲Shots10/1011 shots/match
4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.5 shots/match
47%Possession10/1043.1%
4.4 corners/matchCorners10/104.1 corners/match
1.7 cards/matchCards10/101.3 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls10/109.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

17 / 17 matches
1.41 goals/match▲Goals scored17/171.24 goals/match
1.82 goals/matchGoals allowed17/17▲1.12 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.1 shots/match▲Shots17/1711.6 shots/match
4.06 shots/matchShots on target17/174.18 shots/match
46.3%Possession17/1742.4%
4.24 corners/matchCorners17/173.76 corners/match
1.59 cards/matchCards17/171.76 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls17/1710.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 9 matches
1.89 goals/match▲Goals scored9/91.33 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.8 shots/match▲Shots9/910 shots/match
4.89 shots/match▲Shots on target9/93.89 shots/match
45.7%Possession9/942.3%
5.22 corners/matchCorners9/93.78 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards9/92 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls9/910.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.15 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.25 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 21 Dec 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLeedsCrystal Palace
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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