PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 20 Dec 2025, 17:30 UTCFull timeTottenham Hotspur StadiumFull-time recap
1–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricTottenhamLiverpool
Shots15 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match4 shots/match
Possession35%65%
Corners2 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls7 fouls/match2 fouls/match
Yellow cards5 cards/match3 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Tottenham's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Liverpool's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Tottenham's recent record differs from the season

weak

Tottenham's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.53 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.53 goals/match1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Liverpool show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Liverpool's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

9.88 shots/match▲ShotsTottenham · Liverpool15.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricTottenhamLiverpoolBaseline
Shots9.88 shots/match15.2 shots/match11.9 shots/match
Shots against11.6 shots/match11.5 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Liverpool have recorded the higher season possession share.

52%▲PossessionTottenham · Liverpool60.9%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.9 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricTottenhamLiverpoolBaseline
Possession52%60.9%51%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Tottenham favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Liverpool in 7 · 6 too close

1.53 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 17/17▲1.65 goals/match
1.35 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 17/171.47 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
9.88 shots/matchShotsseason · 17/17▲15.2 shots/match
11.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 17/1711.5 shots/match
3.29 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 17/17▲4.35 shots/match
4.29 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 17/17▲3.88 shots/match
52%Possessionseason · 17/1760.9%
5.65 corners/matchCornersseason · 17/175.06 corners/match
5.41 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 17/17▲4.76 corners/match
2.82 cards/matchCardsseason · 17/17▲1.94 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 17/1710 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
29%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 17/1729%
82%Scoring frequencyseason · 17/17▲88%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Tottenham62.5
Liverpool97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Tottenham36.7
Liverpool78.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Tottenham48.3
Liverpool58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Tottenham7.5
Liverpool72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Tottenham82.5
Liverpool37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Tottenham87.5
Liverpool45
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Tottenham50
Liverpool55
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲14.8 shots/match
3.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.8 shots/match
50%Possession5/558.6%
5.6 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match
3.8 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls5/59.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.3 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.5 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.1 shots/matchShots10/10▲15.5 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.4 shots/match
49.5%Possession10/1060.2%
5.4 corners/matchCorners10/105 corners/match
3.3 cards/matchCards10/101.8 cards/match
10.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

17 / 17 matches
1.53 goals/matchGoals scored17/17▲1.65 goals/match
1.35 goals/match▲Goals allowed17/171.47 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.88 shots/matchShots17/17▲15.2 shots/match
3.29 shots/matchShots on target17/17▲4.35 shots/match
52%Possession17/1760.9%
5.65 corners/matchCorners17/175.06 corners/match
2.82 cards/matchCards17/171.94 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls17/1710 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 9 matches
1.22 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲1.67 goals/match
1.22 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.78 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.9 shots/matchShots9/9▲13.6 shots/match
3.44 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲4 shots/match
54%Possession9/961.7%
5.56 corners/matchCorners9/95 corners/match
3.22 cards/matchCards9/92.44 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls9/910.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.15 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.1 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 20 Dec 2025, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsTottenhamLiverpool
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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