PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sun, 14 Dec 2025, 16:30 UTCFull timeBrentford Community StadiumFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

Leeds

LLLWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBrentfordLeeds
Shots7 shots/match18 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match4 shots/match▲
Possession57%43%
Corners0 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls8 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match0 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Leeds's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Leeds's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Leeds's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Leeds's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.25 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.25 goals/match1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Leeds have a visible away split

moderate

Leeds's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10 shots/match12.6 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Brentford favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Leeds in 4 · 7 too close

1.38 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 16/161.25 goals/match
1.56 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 16/161.88 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
9.88 shots/matchShotsseason · 16/16▲12.6 shots/match
12.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 16/16▲11.6 shots/match
3.81 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 16/163.81 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 16/164.19 shots/match
44%Possessionseason · 16/1645.9%
5.13 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/163.94 corners/match
4.63 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 16/16▲3.31 corners/match
1.88 cards/matchCardsseason · 16/16▲1.63 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1610.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
13%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/1613%
75%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 16/1669%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Brentford27.5
Leeds32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Brentford35.8
Leeds45
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Brentford40.8
Leeds39.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Brentford32.5
Leeds87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Brentford62.5
Leeds36.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Brentford52.5
Leeds22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Brentford44.4
Leeds42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match
1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲14 shots/match
2.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.6 shots/match
46%Possession5/540.6%
4.6 corners/matchCorners5/53.2 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
8.4 fouls/matchFouls5/512.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.3 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.4 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.7 shots/matchShots10/10▲13.3 shots/match
3.7 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.1 shots/match
46.3%Possession10/1047.4%
5.2 corners/matchCorners10/103.9 corners/match
1.9 cards/matchCards10/101.8 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

16 / 16 matches
1.38 goals/match▲Goals scored16/161.25 goals/match
1.56 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/161.88 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.88 shots/matchShots16/16▲12.6 shots/match
3.81 shots/matchShots on target16/163.81 shots/match
44%Possession16/1645.9%
5.13 corners/matchCorners16/163.94 corners/match
1.88 cards/matchCards16/161.63 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls16/1610.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 8 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored8/80.88 goals/match
1.13 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/82.38 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.6 shots/match▲Shots8/810 shots/match
4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target8/83.13 shots/match
40.5%Possession8/847%
3.75 corners/matchCorners8/83.13 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCards8/81.13 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls8/810 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.06 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.96 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 14 Dec 2025, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBrentfordLeeds
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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