Premier League · 2025Sat, 22 Nov 2025, 17:30 UTCFull timeSt. James' ParkFull-time recap

Newcastle

WLWLL

2–1Full-time recap

Manchester City

WWLWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Newcastle	Manchester City
Shots	9 shots/match	17 shots/match▲
Shots on target	5 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Possession	33%	67%
Corners	5 corners/match	9 corners/match
Fouls	13 fouls/match	8 fouls/match
Yellow cards	1 cards/match▲	3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Newcastle's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Newcastle's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Newcastle's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.08 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.4 goals/match	1.08 goals/match	1.29 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Newcastle favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Manchester City in 8 · 5 too close

1.08 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 12/12▲2 goals/match

1.25 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 12/12▲0.83 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

11.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 12/12▲14.1 shots/match

11.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 12/12▲9.17 shots/match

3.75 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 12/12▲5.08 shots/match

4.5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 12/12▲3.17 shots/match

49.7%Possessionseason · 12/1257.3%

5.42 corners/matchCornersseason · 12/125.92 corners/match

5.33 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 12/12▲4.42 corners/match

1.42 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 12/121.75 cards/match

10.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 12/129.25 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

42%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 12/1242%

75%Scoring frequencyseason · 12/12▲83%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Newcastle42.5

Manchester City82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Newcastle34.2

Manchester City87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Newcastle50.8

Manchester City87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Newcastle32.5

Manchester City57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Newcastle35

Manchester City21.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Newcastle67.5

Manchester City77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Newcastle52.5

Manchester City62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

12 shots/matchShots5/5▲16.6 shots/match

4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.8 shots/match

50.4%Possession5/557.6%

4.2 corners/matchCorners5/58.4 corners/match

1.6 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match

8.6 fouls/matchFouls5/510.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2 goals/match

1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.8 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

11.4 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.4 shots/match

3.9 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.3 shots/match

49.8%Possession10/1056.8%

5.2 corners/matchCorners10/105.9 corners/match

1.3 cards/matchCards10/101.8 cards/match

10.2 fouls/matchFouls10/109.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

12 / 12 matches

1.08 goals/matchGoals scored12/12▲2 goals/match

1.25 goals/matchGoals allowed12/12▲0.83 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

11.7 shots/matchShots12/12▲14.1 shots/match

3.75 shots/matchShots on target12/12▲5.08 shots/match

49.7%Possession12/1257.3%

5.42 corners/matchCorners12/125.92 corners/match

1.42 cards/matchCards12/121.75 cards/match

10.8 fouls/matchFouls12/129.25 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 6 matches

1.67 goals/match▲Goals scored6/61.33 goals/match

1.17 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲1 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

13.2 shots/matchShots6/612.8 shots/match

5.17 shots/match▲Shots on target6/63.67 shots/match

44.5%Possession6/657.3%

6.67 corners/matchCorners6/64.17 corners/match

1.17 cards/matchCards6/62.5 cards/match

12.5 fouls/matchFouls6/610.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

13.2 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/113 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples12 / 12home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 22 Nov 2025, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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