PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 22 Nov 2025, 15:00 UTCFull timeAmex StadiumFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBrightonBrentford
Shots14 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession64%36%
Corners7 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards4 cards/match2 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Brentford's last-five shots average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Brentford's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Brentford's last-five shots average is above their season average.

14 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season10.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots14 shots/match10.6 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

weak

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

12.2 fouls/match▲FoulsBrighton · Brentford12.3 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricBrightonBrentfordBaseline
Fouls12.2 fouls/match12.3 fouls/match10.7 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Brighton favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Brentford in 1 · 8 too close

1.58 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 12/121.5 goals/match
1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 12/121.58 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 12/1210.6 shots/match
10.6 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 12/1212.3 shots/match
4.58 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 12/124.42 shots/match
3.5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 12/123.67 shots/match
50.2%Possessionseason · 12/1242.5%
5.25 corners/matchCornersseason · 12/125.25 corners/match
4 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 12/124.5 corners/match
2.67 cards/matchCardsseason · 12/12▲2.08 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 12/1212.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
17%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 12/1217%
83%Scoring frequencyseason · 12/1283%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Brighton47.5
Brentford7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Brighton70
Brentford50.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Brighton66.7
Brentford49.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Brighton52.5
Brentford77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Brighton87.5
Brentford76.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Brighton47.5
Brentford47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Brighton66.2
Brentford55.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.8 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13 shots/matchShots5/5▲14 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.6 shots/match
54.8%Possession5/547.8%
6.6 corners/matchCorners5/56 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls5/512 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.6 goals/match
1.3 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.4 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.8 shots/match
4.7 shots/matchShots on target10/104.8 shots/match
49.4%Possession10/1044%
5.7 corners/matchCorners10/105.6 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards10/102.2 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

12 / 12 matches
1.58 goals/match▲Goals scored12/121.5 goals/match
1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/121.58 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.3 shots/match▲Shots12/1210.6 shots/match
4.58 shots/matchShots on target12/124.42 shots/match
50.2%Possession12/1242.5%
5.25 corners/matchCorners12/125.25 corners/match
2.67 cards/matchCards12/122.08 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls12/1212.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 6 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored6/61 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/62 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.5 shots/match▲Shots6/610.5 shots/match
5.33 shots/match▲Shots on target6/63.83 shots/match
47.2%Possession6/649.2%
4.67 corners/matchCorners6/66.33 corners/match
1.67 cards/matchCards6/61.83 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls6/611.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

13 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/113 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 22 Nov 2025, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBrightonBrentford
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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