PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 18 Oct 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timeTurf MoorFull-time recap

Burnley

LLDLL
2–0Full-time recap

Leeds

DLWDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBurnleyLeeds
Shots4 shots/match19 shots/match▲
Shots on target3 shots/match4 shots/match▲
Possession31%69%
Corners1 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match7 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Leeds's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Leeds's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Leeds show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Leeds's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

7.5 shots/match▲ShotsBurnley · Leeds13 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBurnleyLeedsBaseline
Shots7.5 shots/match13 shots/match11.7 shots/match
Shots against18.8 shots/match9.88 shots/match11.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Leeds's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Leeds's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.88 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.88 goals/match1.21 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Leeds have a visible away split

weak

Leeds's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.5 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.5 shots/match13 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Burnley favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Leeds in 7 · 5 too close

1.13 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 8/80.88 goals/match
1.88 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 8/8▲1.63 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
7.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 8/8▲13 shots/match
18.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 8/8▲9.88 shots/match
2.63 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 8/8▲3.5 shots/match
5.5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 8/8▲3.5 shots/match
34.5%Possessionseason · 8/848.3%
2.75 corners/matchCornersseason · 8/84.13 corners/match
6.88 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 8/8▲2.75 corners/match
1.88 cards/matchCardsseason · 8/8▲1.38 cards/match
9.88 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 8/810 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
25%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 8/825%
75%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 8/850%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Burnley2.5
Leeds37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Burnley16.7
Leeds42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Burnley6.7
Leeds55.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Burnley37.5
Leeds87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Burnley28.8
Leeds23.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Burnley2.5
Leeds27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Burnley6.9
Leeds38.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.2 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
6.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲14 shots/match
2.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.6 shots/match
32.6%Possession5/551.4%
2.4 corners/matchCorners5/53.8 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls5/510.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

8 / 8 matches
1.13 goals/match▲Goals scored8/80.88 goals/match
1.88 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲1.63 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
7.5 shots/matchShots8/8▲13 shots/match
2.63 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲3.5 shots/match
34.5%Possession8/848.3%
2.75 corners/matchCorners8/84.13 corners/match
1.88 cards/matchCards8/81.38 cards/match
9.88 fouls/matchFouls8/810 fouls/match

Window

Season

8 / 8 matches
1.13 goals/match▲Goals scored8/80.88 goals/match
1.88 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲1.63 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
7.5 shots/matchShots8/8▲13 shots/match
2.63 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲3.5 shots/match
34.5%Possession8/848.3%
2.75 corners/matchCorners8/84.13 corners/match
1.88 cards/matchCards8/81.38 cards/match
9.88 fouls/matchFouls8/810 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches
1.25 goals/match▲Goals scored4/40.75 goals/match
0.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/42.25 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
6.5 shots/matchShots4/4▲9.5 shots/match
2.5 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲3 shots/match
32.3%Possession4/447.8%
2.5 corners/matchCorners4/42.5 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards4/41.5 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls4/410.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

13 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114.1 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 18 Oct 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBurnleyLeeds
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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