PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 18 Oct 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timeAmex StadiumFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBrightonNewcastle
Shots13 shots/match16 shots/match▲
Shots on target5 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession46%54%
Corners8 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Brighton's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Brighton's recent record differs from the season

weak

Brighton's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.5 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.5 goals/match1.21 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

weak

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

12.6 fouls/match▲FoulsBrighton · Newcastle12 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricBrightonNewcastleBaseline
Fouls12.6 fouls/match12 fouls/match10.8 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Brighton favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Newcastle in 4 · 5 too close

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 8/80.88 goals/match
1.38 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 8/8▲0.88 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 8/812 shots/match
11.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 8/8▲9.38 shots/match
4.38 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 8/83.5 shots/match
3.13 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 8/83.63 shots/match
46.8%Possessionseason · 8/849.8%
4.75 corners/matchCornersseason · 8/86 corners/match
4 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 8/84.88 corners/match
2.75 cards/matchCardsseason · 8/8▲1.25 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 8/812 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 8/8▲63%
88%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 8/863%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Brighton32.5
Newcastle52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Brighton63.3
Newcastle39.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Brighton61.7
Newcastle74.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Brighton77.5
Newcastle62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Brighton91.2
Newcastle41.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Brighton47.5
Newcastle90
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Brighton65
Newcastle63.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12 shots/matchShots5/512.4 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target5/54 shots/match
45.8%Possession5/548.6%
5.8 corners/matchCorners5/56 corners/match
2.8 cards/matchCards5/51 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls5/510.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

8 / 8 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored8/80.88 goals/match
1.38 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲0.88 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.9 shots/matchShots8/812 shots/match
4.38 shots/match▲Shots on target8/83.5 shots/match
46.8%Possession8/849.8%
4.75 corners/matchCorners8/86 corners/match
2.75 cards/matchCards8/81.25 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls8/812 fouls/match

Window

Season

8 / 8 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored8/80.88 goals/match
1.38 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲0.88 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.9 shots/matchShots8/812 shots/match
4.38 shots/match▲Shots on target8/83.5 shots/match
46.8%Possession8/849.8%
4.75 corners/matchCorners8/86 corners/match
2.75 cards/matchCards8/81.25 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls8/812 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches
1.75 goals/match▲Goals scored4/40.25 goals/match
1.25 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲0.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.8 shots/match▲Shots4/411 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target4/42.25 shots/match
42.3%Possession4/453.8%
4.25 corners/matchCorners4/44.25 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards4/41 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls4/411.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

13 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/113 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 18 Oct 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBrightonNewcastle
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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