PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 25 Oct 2025, 16:30 UTCFull timeOld TraffordFull-time recap
4–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricManchester UnitedBrighton
Shots13 shots/match17 shots/match▲
Shots on target9 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Possession44%56%
Corners1 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls4 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Manchester United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Manchester United's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Manchester United's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Manchester United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.67 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.67 goals/match1.36 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Manchester United have a visible home split

moderate

Manchester United's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.4 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season15 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17.4 shots/match15 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Manchester United show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Manchester United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

15 shots/match▲ShotsManchester United · Brighton12.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricManchester UnitedBrightonBaseline
Shots15 shots/match12.4 shots/match11.9 shots/match
Shots against11.1 shots/match11.3 shots/match11.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Manchester United favored in 6 of 14 directional metrics · Brighton in 3 · 5 too close

1.67 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 9/91.56 goals/match
1.56 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 9/91.67 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
15 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 9/912.4 shots/match
11.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 9/911.3 shots/match
5.22 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 9/94.44 shots/match
4.33 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 9/9▲3.78 shots/match
50.3%Possessionseason · 9/947.8%
3.78 corners/matchCornersseason · 9/94.89 corners/match
4.78 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 9/9▲3.67 corners/match
1.44 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 9/92.67 cards/match
9.78 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 9/912.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
11%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 9/90%
78%Scoring frequencyseason · 9/9▲89%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Manchester United57.5
Brighton37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Manchester United82.5
Brighton60.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Manchester United45
Brighton49.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Manchester United92.5
Brighton72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Manchester United20
Brighton92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Manchester United27.5
Brighton47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Manchester United57.5
Brighton64.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/52 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13 shots/matchShots5/5▲14.2 shots/match
5.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.6 shots/match
45.4%Possession5/547.2%
2.8 corners/matchCorners5/56.2 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls5/511.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

9 / 9 matches
1.67 goals/match▲Goals scored9/91.56 goals/match
1.56 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.67 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15 shots/match▲Shots9/912.4 shots/match
5.22 shots/match▲Shots on target9/94.44 shots/match
50.3%Possession9/947.8%
3.78 corners/matchCorners9/94.89 corners/match
1.44 cards/matchCards9/92.67 cards/match
9.78 fouls/matchFouls9/912.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

9 / 9 matches
1.67 goals/match▲Goals scored9/91.56 goals/match
1.56 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.67 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15 shots/match▲Shots9/912.4 shots/match
5.22 shots/match▲Shots on target9/94.44 shots/match
50.3%Possession9/947.8%
3.78 corners/matchCorners9/94.89 corners/match
1.44 cards/matchCards9/92.67 cards/match
9.78 fouls/matchFouls9/912.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 5 matches
2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.4 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17.4 shots/match▲Shots5/513 shots/match
6.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54 shots/match
51.6%Possession5/552.2%
3.6 corners/matchCorners5/55.4 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/53.6 cards/match
9.2 fouls/matchFouls5/512.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.04 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.1 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 25 Oct 2025, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsManchester UnitedBrighton
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match