PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 25 Oct 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timeStamford BridgeFull-time recap

Chelsea

DLLWW
1–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricChelseaSunderland
Shots16 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession68%32%
Corners9 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls15 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Chelsea have recorded the higher season possession share. A second useful context is: Chelsea's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Chelsea have recorded the higher season possession share.

60.1%▲PossessionChelsea · Sunderland42.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 17.9 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricChelseaSunderlandBaseline
Possession60.1%42.2%49.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Chelsea show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Chelsea's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.7 shots/match▲ShotsChelsea · Sunderland9.78 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricChelseaSunderlandBaseline
Shots13.7 shots/match9.78 shots/match11.9 shots/match
Shots against10.9 shots/match13.4 shots/match11.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Chelsea's recent record differs from the season

weak

Chelsea's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.89 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.89 goals/match1.3 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Chelsea favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · Sunderland in 3 · 4 too close

1.89 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 9/91.22 goals/match
1.22 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 9/9▲0.78 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.7 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 9/99.78 shots/match
10.9 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 9/913.4 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 9/92.78 shots/match
3.33 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 9/94.44 shots/match
60.1%Possessionseason · 9/942.2%
6.22 corners/matchCornersseason · 9/93.33 corners/match
4.22 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 9/95 corners/match
2.56 cards/matchCardsseason · 9/9▲1.67 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 9/99.11 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
33%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 9/9▲44%
89%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 9/967%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Chelsea92.5
Sunderland12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Chelsea87.5
Sunderland22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Chelsea69.2
Sunderland42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Chelsea42.5
Sunderland47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Chelsea75
Sunderland18.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Chelsea92.5
Sunderland7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Chelsea80
Sunderland8.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.6 shots/match▲Shots5/510.2 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.2 shots/match
58%Possession5/537.4%
5.6 corners/matchCorners5/53.2 corners/match
3.2 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls5/510 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

9 / 9 matches
1.89 goals/match▲Goals scored9/91.22 goals/match
1.22 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲0.78 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.7 shots/match▲Shots9/99.78 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target9/92.78 shots/match
60.1%Possession9/942.2%
6.22 corners/matchCorners9/93.33 corners/match
2.56 cards/matchCards9/91.67 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls9/99.11 fouls/match

Window

Season

9 / 9 matches
1.89 goals/match▲Goals scored9/91.22 goals/match
1.22 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲0.78 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.7 shots/match▲Shots9/99.78 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target9/92.78 shots/match
60.1%Possession9/942.2%
6.22 corners/matchCorners9/93.33 corners/match
2.56 cards/matchCards9/91.67 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls9/99.11 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.6 shots/match▲Shots5/58.8 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.2 shots/match
61.4%Possession5/543.8%
7.6 corners/matchCorners5/52.8 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls5/58.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 25 Oct 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsChelseaSunderland
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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