PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 25 Oct 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timeSt. James' ParkFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

Fulham

WWLLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNewcastleFulham
Shots18 shots/match▲12 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Possession51%49%
Corners4 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match18 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Newcastle's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Fulham's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Newcastle's recent record differs from the season

weak

Newcastle's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1 goals/match1.3 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Fulham show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Fulham's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.7 shots/match▲ShotsNewcastle · Fulham10.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNewcastleFulhamBaseline
Shots12.7 shots/match10.4 shots/match11.9 shots/match
Shots against9.67 shots/match11.7 shots/match11.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

weak

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

11.9 fouls/match▲FoulsNewcastle · Fulham14.1 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricNewcastleFulhamBaseline
Fouls11.9 fouls/match14.1 fouls/match10.8 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Newcastle favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · Fulham in 1 · 5 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 9/91 goals/match
0.89 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 9/91.56 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.7 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 9/910.4 shots/match
9.67 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 9/911.7 shots/match
3.89 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 9/93.11 shots/match
3.78 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 9/94.56 shots/match
49.9%Possessionseason · 9/948.8%
5.78 corners/matchCornersseason · 9/94.56 corners/match
4.67 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 9/95.44 corners/match
1.11 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 9/92 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 9/914.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
56%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 9/911%
67%Scoring frequencyseason · 9/9▲78%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Newcastle52.5
Fulham42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Newcastle46.7
Fulham21.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Newcastle73.3
Fulham32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Newcastle72.5
Fulham27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Newcastle37.5
Fulham81.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Newcastle82.5
Fulham37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Newcastle67.5
Fulham43.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.2 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.8 shots/match▲Shots5/511.6 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.2 shots/match
47.4%Possession5/547.4%
5 corners/matchCorners5/54.4 corners/match
0.8 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls5/512.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

9 / 9 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored9/91 goals/match
0.89 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.56 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.7 shots/match▲Shots9/910.4 shots/match
3.89 shots/match▲Shots on target9/93.11 shots/match
49.9%Possession9/948.8%
5.78 corners/matchCorners9/94.56 corners/match
1.11 cards/matchCards9/92 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls9/914.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

9 / 9 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored9/91 goals/match
0.89 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.56 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.7 shots/match▲Shots9/910.4 shots/match
3.89 shots/match▲Shots on target9/93.11 shots/match
49.9%Possession9/948.8%
5.78 corners/matchCorners9/94.56 corners/match
1.11 cards/matchCards9/92 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls9/914.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14 shots/match▲Shots5/510.6 shots/match
5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.6 shots/match
46.8%Possession5/548.6%
7 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match
1.2 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls5/514.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.9 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 25 Oct 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNewcastleFulham
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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