PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2025Tue, 21 Oct 2025, 19:00 UTCFull timeSt James' ParkFull-time recap
3–0Full-time recap

Benfica

WDWLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNewcastle UnitedBenfica
Shots19 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target10 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Expected goals2.81 xG/match▲0.33 xG/match
Possession52%48%
Corners12 corners/match8 corners/match
Fouls16 fouls/match7 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Anthony Gordon · Newcastle United · 7′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDan Burn · Newcastle United · 9′ · 0.01 xG · on targetJacob Murphy · Newcastle United · 22′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDan Burn · Newcastle United · 27′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDodi Lukebakio · Benfica · 43′ · 0.02 xG · on targetGeorgiy Sudakov · Benfica · 44′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Gordon · Newcastle United · 81′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJacob Murphy · Newcastle United · 10′ · 0.03 xG · on targetVangelis Pavlidis · Benfica · 19′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDodi Lukebakio · Benfica · 21′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJacob Murphy · Newcastle United · 55′ · 0.03 xG · on targetEnzo Barrenechea · Benfica · 57′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDan Burn · Newcastle United · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetDodi Lukebakio · Benfica · 49′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedHarvey Barnes · Newcastle United · 70′ · 0.05 xG · goalNick Woltemade · Newcastle United · 52′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedSven Botman · Newcastle United · 90′ · 0.06 xG · on targetJoelinton · Newcastle United · 90′ · 0.06 xG · on targetAnthony Gordon · Newcastle United · 52′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedDodi Lukebakio · Benfica · 15′ · 0.15 xG · on targetBruno Guimarães · Newcastle United · 27′ · 0.20 xG · on targetJoe Willock · Newcastle United · 90′ · 0.28 xG · off target or blockedLewis Miley · Newcastle United · 9′ · 0.32 xG · off target or blockedLewis Miley · Newcastle United · 52′ · 0.46 xG · off target or blockedHarvey Barnes · Newcastle United · 83′ · 0.53 xG · goalAnthony Gordon · Newcastle United · 32′ · 0.54 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Newcastle United: 19 shots, 10 on target, 2.85 xG. Benfica: 7 shots, 2 on target, 0.33 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Anthony Gordon · Newcastle United · 32′Harvey Barnes · Newcastle United · 70′Harvey Barnes · Newcastle United · 83′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Newcastle United 2.85 xG · Benfica 0.33 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Benfica's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Benfica's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Benfica's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Benfica's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Benfica have a visible away split

weak

Benfica's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.75 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.75 shots/match12.7 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

7.67 corners/match▲CornersNewcastle United · Benfica5.71 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricNewcastle UnitedBenficaBaseline
Corners7.67 corners/match5.71 corners/match5 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Newcastle United favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Benfica in 0 · 14 too close

2.67 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 3/71 goals/match
0.67 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 3/71 goals/match
2.34 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 3/30.85 xG/match
0.84 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 3/31.75 xG/match
14 shots/matchShotsseason · 3/712.7 shots/match
14.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 3/711 shots/match
7.33 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 3/73.57 shots/match
4.33 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 3/73.71 shots/match
48.3%Possessionseason · 3/750.7%
7.67 corners/matchCornersseason · 3/75.71 corners/match
6.33 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 3/74.71 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
11.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 3/712 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
67%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 3/757%
100%Scoring frequencyseason · 3/757%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Newcastle United42.6
Benfica57.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Newcastle United75.8
Benfica32
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Newcastle United56.3
Benfica67.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Newcastle United61.1
Benfica42.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Newcastle United46.3
Benfica61.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Newcastle United98.1
Benfica79.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Newcastle United71.8
Benfica52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

3 / 5 matches
2.67 goals/match▲Goals scored3/50.6 goals/match
0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/51.4 goals/match
2.34 xG/match▲Expected goals3/30.85 xG/match
14 shots/match▲Shots3/510.8 shots/match
7.33 shots/match▲Shots on target3/52.8 shots/match
48.3%Possession3/548.8%
7.67 corners/matchCorners3/55.8 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.7 fouls/matchFouls3/512.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

3 / 7 matches
2.67 goals/match▲Goals scored3/71 goals/match
0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/71 goals/match
2.34 xG/match▲Expected goals3/30.85 xG/match
14 shots/match▲Shots3/712.7 shots/match
7.33 shots/match▲Shots on target3/73.57 shots/match
48.3%Possession3/750.7%
7.67 corners/matchCorners3/75.71 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.7 fouls/matchFouls3/712 fouls/match

Window

Season

3 / 7 matches
2.67 goals/match▲Goals scored3/71 goals/match
0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/71 goals/match
2.34 xG/match▲Expected goals3/30.85 xG/match
14 shots/match▲Shots3/712.7 shots/match
7.33 shots/match▲Shots on target3/73.57 shots/match
48.3%Possession3/750.7%
7.67 corners/matchCorners3/75.71 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.7 fouls/matchFouls3/712 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

2 / 4 matches
—Goals scored2/40.5 goals/match
—Goals allowed2/41 goals/match
—Expected goals2/2—
—Shots2/49.75 shots/match
—Shots on target2/43.5 shots/match
—Possession2/447.8%
—Corners2/45.5 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
—Fouls2/413.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

20.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/121 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples3 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples3 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 21 Oct 2025, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNewcastle UnitedBenfica
CompetitionUEFA Champions League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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