PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 18 Oct 2025, 16:30 UTCFull timeCraven CottageFull-time recap

Fulham

LWWLL
0–1Full-time recap

Arsenal

LWDWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricFulhamArsenal
Shots9 shots/match16 shots/match▲
Shots on target0 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Possession37%63%
Corners6 corners/match10 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match4 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match0 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Fulham's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Fulham's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Fulham show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Fulham's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.3 shots/match▲ShotsFulham · Arsenal15.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFulhamArsenalBaseline
Shots10.3 shots/match15.4 shots/match11.7 shots/match
Shots against10.9 shots/match8.13 shots/match11.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Fulham's recent record differs from the season

weak

Fulham's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1 goals/match1.21 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Arsenal have recorded the higher season possession share.

48.8%▲PossessionFulham · Arsenal58.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.9 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricFulhamArsenalBaseline
Possession48.8%58.6%49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Fulham favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Arsenal in 10 · 4 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 8/8▲1.88 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 8/8▲0.38 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 8/8▲15.4 shots/match
10.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 8/8▲8.13 shots/match
2.88 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 8/8▲4.25 shots/match
4.25 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 8/8▲2.25 shots/match
48.8%Possessionseason · 8/858.6%
4.75 corners/matchCornersseason · 8/87.88 corners/match
5.63 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 8/8▲3.5 corners/match
2 cards/matchCardsseason · 8/8▲1.13 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 8/810.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
13%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 8/8▲63%
75%Scoring frequencyseason · 8/8▲88%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Fulham42.5
Arsenal82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Fulham23.3
Arsenal80.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Fulham41.7
Arsenal97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Fulham22.5
Arsenal82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Fulham76.2
Arsenal20
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Fulham47.5
Arsenal97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Fulham45.6
Arsenal72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲17 shots/match
2.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5 shots/match
48.4%Possession5/563%
4.4 corners/matchCorners5/59.8 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/50.6 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls5/59.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

8 / 8 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲1.88 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲0.38 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.3 shots/matchShots8/8▲15.4 shots/match
2.88 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲4.25 shots/match
48.8%Possession8/858.6%
4.75 corners/matchCorners8/87.88 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards8/81.13 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls8/810.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

8 / 8 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲1.88 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲0.38 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.3 shots/matchShots8/8▲15.4 shots/match
2.88 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲4.25 shots/match
48.8%Possession8/858.6%
4.75 corners/matchCorners8/87.88 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards8/81.13 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls8/810.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches
1.25 goals/match▲Goals scored4/41 goals/match
0.75 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲0.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.3 shots/matchShots4/4▲14 shots/match
2.5 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲4 shots/match
49%Possession4/453%
5 corners/matchCorners4/48.5 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards4/41.75 cards/match
13.5 fouls/matchFouls4/410.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114.1 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 18 Oct 2025, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsFulhamArsenal
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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