UEFA Champions League · 2025Wed, 22 Oct 2025, 19:00 UTCFull timeStamford BridgeFull-time recap

Chelsea

5–1Full-time recap

AFC Ajax

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Chelsea	AFC Ajax
Shots	22 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Shots on target	10 shots/match▲	1 shots/match
Expected goals	3.65 xG/match▲	1.05 xG/match
Possession	66%	34%
Corners	11 corners/match	0 corners/match
Fouls	15 fouls/match	6 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Chelsea: 16 shots, 8 on target, 2.91 xG. AFC Ajax: 2 shots, 1 on target, 1.07 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Chelsea 2.91 xG · AFC Ajax 1.07 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: AFC Ajax's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Chelsea have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

AFC Ajax show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

AFC Ajax's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

13 shots/match▲ShotsChelsea · AFC Ajax7.33 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Chelsea	AFC Ajax	Baseline
Shots	13 shots/match	7.33 shots/match	13.5 shots/match
Shots against	9 shots/match	15 shots/match	13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

Chelsea have recorded the higher season possession share.

55.3%▲PossessionChelsea · AFC Ajax47.3%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.0 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Chelsea	AFC Ajax	Baseline
Possession	55.3%	47.3%	49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Chelsea favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · AFC Ajax in 0 · 14 too close

2.33 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 3/30.33 goals/match

1.33 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 3/33.67 goals/match

1.77 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 3/31.04 xG/match

1.32 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 3/32.01 xG/match

13 shots/matchShotsseason · 3/37.33 shots/match

9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 3/315 shots/match

5.33 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 3/31.67 shots/match

3 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 3/36.67 shots/match

55.3%Possessionseason · 3/347.3%

5.33 corners/matchCornersseason · 3/33.33 corners/match

3.67 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 3/35.33 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 3/311 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

33%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 3/30%

100%Scoring frequencyseason · 3/333%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Chelsea76.2

AFC Ajax36.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Chelsea59.5

AFC Ajax2.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Chelsea75.6

AFC Ajax16.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Chelsea29.8

AFC Ajax1.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Chelsea52.4

AFC Ajax44

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Chelsea69

AFC Ajax16.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Chelsea56.2

AFC Ajax16.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

3 / 3 matches

2.33 goals/match▲Goals scored3/30.33 goals/match

1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/33.67 goals/match

1.77 xG/match▲Expected goals3/31.04 xG/match

13 shots/match▲Shots3/37.33 shots/match

5.33 shots/match▲Shots on target3/31.67 shots/match

55.3%Possession3/347.3%

5.33 corners/matchCorners3/33.33 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.7 fouls/matchFouls3/311 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

3 / 3 matches

2.33 goals/match▲Goals scored3/30.33 goals/match

1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/33.67 goals/match

1.77 xG/match▲Expected goals3/31.04 xG/match

13 shots/match▲Shots3/37.33 shots/match

5.33 shots/match▲Shots on target3/31.67 shots/match

55.3%Possession3/347.3%

5.33 corners/matchCorners3/33.33 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.7 fouls/matchFouls3/311 fouls/match

Window

Season

3 / 3 matches

2.33 goals/match▲Goals scored3/30.33 goals/match

1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/33.67 goals/match

1.77 xG/match▲Expected goals3/31.04 xG/match

13 shots/match▲Shots3/37.33 shots/match

5.33 shots/match▲Shots on target3/31.67 shots/match

55.3%Possession3/347.3%

5.33 corners/matchCorners3/33.33 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.7 fouls/matchFouls3/311 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

2 / 2 matches

—Goals scored2/2—

—Goals allowed2/2—

—Expected goals2/2—

—Shots2/2—

—Shots on target2/2—

—Possession2/2—

—Corners2/2—

—Cards0/0—

—Fouls2/2—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

22 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/122 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples3 / 3home / away teams

Recent samples3 / 3last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Wed, 22 Oct 2025, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

Shot map

Expected-goals timeline

What the record shows

AFC Ajax show a distinct attacking-volume record

The teams have contrasting possession records

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

Make a graphic from this match